Lookback Syria in 2024: Syria, located on the eastern Mediterranean coast, has faced decades of turmoil marked by autocratic rule, civil war, and international interventions. The year 2024, however, stands out as a decisive turning point in the country’s history, signaling the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after over a decade of resilience through wars and sanctions.
Roots of the Conflict: From Autocracy to Civil War
Syria's political unrest began long before the Arab Spring protests of 2010-2011, which demanded democratic reforms across the Middle East. The ruling Baath Party, formed in 1943, rose to power in a 1963 military coup and established an authoritarian regime under Hafez al-Assad in 1970. His son, Bashar al-Assad, continued the one-party rule after 2000, stifling dissent and centralizing power within the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam.
The Arab Spring protests ignited nationwide uprisings in 2011, met with brutal government crackdowns. These peaceful demonstrations soon escalated into a full-scale civil war, drawing in various factions, including the Free Syrian Army and extremist groups like ISIS. The regime’s violent suppression and use of chemical weapons deepened the crisis.
External Interventions and Survival of Assad's Regime
Despite facing widespread opposition, Assad’s regime endured with significant backing from Russia and Iran. Hezbollah fighters joined forces with Assad, while Russian airstrikes helped regain lost territories, including Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta. The regime also benefited from the U.S.-led coalition’s defeat of ISIS, which had seized vast territories across Syria and Iraq. By 2017, major cities like Raqqa were liberated from ISIS control, allowing Assad to consolidate power.
A Series of Events Leading to Assad's Downfall
By 2024, however, the Assad regime's hold began to crumble under compounded pressures. The economic impact of U.S. sanctions under the Caesar Act (2020) left Syria struggling with inflation, corruption, and dwindling resources. The Syrian military, plagued by inefficiency and accusations of involvement in illicit activities, lacked the organizational strength to withstand internal and external challenges.
Geopolitical events further eroded Assad’s position. Russia’s prolonged war with Ukraine diverted Moscow’s military and financial support. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in West Asia, including the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023 and subsequent Israeli retaliations, strained Iran’s ability to back Syria. Hezbollah, a key ally, withdrew its fighters, leaving Assad vulnerable.
Iran’s October 2024 missile attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent bombing of Iranian sites marked a turning point. These developments isolated Syria militarily and politically, weakening the Assad regime to the point of collapse. By late 2024, rebels reclaimed control of Damascus in what was described as a "bloodless takeover," signaling the end of Assad’s rule.
Legacy of the Assad Era and a New Chapter for Syria
The fall of the Assad regime concludes over five decades of Baathist autocracy, which began with Hafez al-Assad's rise in 1970. The era was marked by centralization of power, sectarian divides, and human rights violations. From the 1982 Hama massacre to the suppression of Arab Spring protests, both Assad leaders ruled with an iron grip, suppressing dissent and maintaining a fragile hold on a diverse and divided nation.
As Syria enters a new phase, its future remains uncertain. Rebuilding a war-torn nation plagued by sectarian divides, economic collapse, and the scars of decades-long conflicts will require inclusive governance and international support.