With the emergence of COVID-19 cases posing risks to financial restoration, main brokerages have downgraded India’s GDP development projections for the present fiscal year to as little as 10 p.c on native lockdowns threatening fragile restoration.
While Nomura has downgraded projections of economic growth for the fiscal year ending March 2022 to 12.6 percent from 13.5 percent earlier, JP Morgan now projects GDP growth at 11 percent from 13 percent earlier. UBS sees 10 percent GDP growth, down from 11.5 percent earlier and Citi has downgraded growth to 12 percent.
India's GDP growth had been on the decline even before the pandemic struck earlier last year. From a growth rate of 8.3 percent in FY'17, the GDP expansion had dipped to 6.8 percent and 6.5 percent in the following two years and to 4 percent in 2019-20.
In the Covid-ravaged 2020-21 fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021),the economy is projected to have contracted by up to 8 percent. The low base of FY'21 was seen aiding a double-digit growth rate in the current fiscal before moderating to 6.8 percent in FY'23. The RBI has projected FY'22 GDP growth at 10.5 percent, while IMF puts it at 12.5 percent. The World Bank sees 2021-22 growth at 10.1 percent.
The pandemic caseload in India has been surging hitting new records everyday for the past fortnight. The latest official number puts the daily infections at 2.61 lakh in the past 24 hours and 1,501 deaths.
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