Asteroid 2024 YR4: Scientists are closely watching a newly discovered asteroid called 2024 YR4. The European Space Agency (ESA) updated its predictions and says there is a 2.2% chance it could hit Earth on December 22, 2032. This is slightly higher than the 1.2% risk estimated last week. However, experts believe they will get more accurate results as they continue tracking the asteroid.
When and Where Was It Discovered?
The asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. ATLAS is part of NASA’s program to detect space objects that could be a threat to Earth. Scientists quickly flagged 2024 YR4 as a potential risk, and by December 31, both ESA and NASA added it to their watchlists.
Since early January, observatories around the world, including in New Mexico and Chile, have been tracking its movement. Right now, it is about 45 million kilometers from Earth and is moving farther away. It will be visible until April 2025 and then won’t be seen again until 2028. If experts can’t rule out a collision before then, it will stay on risk lists until more tracking is done.
How Big Is It, and What Could Happen? Scientists estimate that the asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters in size, about the height of a 32-story building. However, they are still unsure of its exact dimensions.
Dr. Paul Chodas, a NASA expert, said that if the asteroid is on the larger side of this estimate and actually hits Earth, the impact could cause damage up to 50 kilometers away from the site. The asteroid is moving at an extremely high speed i.e about 38,000 miles per hour, so even a small impact could be significant. But scientists stress that a collision is still very unlikely.
Have Similar Asteroids Hit Earth Before?
Asteroids of this size only strike Earth every few thousand years. One famous example is the Tunguska event in 1908, when an asteroid about 30 meters wide exploded over Siberia, flattening trees across a huge area. Earlier, in 2013, a smaller asteroid (20 meters wide) exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia. The blast was more powerful than an atomic bomb, damaging thousands of buildings and injuring over 1,000 people.
What Are Scientists Doing Now?
NASA and ESA are carefully monitoring 2024 YR4. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) are also involved. If the asteroid remains a concern after this year’s tracking period, experts may consider ways to prevent a possible impact.
For now, the priority is to collect more data and improve predictions. If needed, scientists could use methods like the 2022 DART mission, where NASA successfully changed the path of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it. Another option would be evacuating areas at risk, but experts believe that is unlikely to be necessary.
Scientists will have their next big update on 2024 YR4 around April or May 2025. If its path is still unclear, they will study it again in 2028 when it comes back into view. Experts remain hopeful that further tracking will show there is no real danger.