Washington: It is unlikely that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will resolve any of the numerous disagreements between the US and China when he travels to Beijing this weekend. Analysts note that he and his Chinese counterparts can at least demonstrate that the most significant bilateral relationship in the world is not about to collapse.
On June 18–19, Blinken will hold meetings in China and could have a meeting with Xi Jinping, according to sources. Since Biden's inauguration in January 2021, he will be the highest-ranking member of the US government to travel to China.
US officials stated that they do not anticipate that the trip will result in a change in how the US and China interact with one another during a pre-trip briefing on Wednesday. That came after Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang told the US to stop interfering in China's internal affairs during a tense evening phone call with Blinken on Tuesday.
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The visit would demonstrate that the two adversaries have not given up on diplomacy and could pave the way for a flurry of other diplomatic engagements, including a meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden later in the year.
According to Andrew Small, a senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund's Asia programme, "both sides want to show the rest of the world that they are managing the relationship responsibly."
"The global south is China's most important audience. It's allies and partners for the US. Therefore, even going through the motions has some benefit for Beijing and Washington.
There are worries that their rivalry could escalate into conflict over Taiwan, which China claims as its own because bilateral relations have deteriorated on all fronts. The two disagree on a variety of topics, including trade, microchips, and human rights.
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China's refusal to permit routine military-to-military talks between Beijing and Washington, despite numerous US attempts, has been particularly concerning for China's neighbours. Creating crisis communication channels was a top priority, according to US officials on Wednesday.
"Anything that would lead to greater cooperation, greater dialogue, and a lessening of tensions between Beijing and Washington is to be welcomed," UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Wednesday. The US officials stated that while "candid, direct, and constructive" discussions will be the focus of Blinken, major issues like the flow of fentanyl precursors and Americans detained in China are unlikely to see significant progress.
Fears of a new Cold War were temporarily allayed by a meeting at the G20 summit in Bali last November, but since the dispute over an alleged Chinese spy balloon in February, high-level communication between the nations has been scarce.
Beijing has tried to strengthen ties with nations in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa after becoming frustrated with what it perceives as the Biden administration's use of economic policies as weapons. Recently, Xi hosted a number of European leaders, including French President Emanuel Macron, and made diplomatic efforts to court other nations, including Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the US.
US officials anticipate that Blinken's visit will pave the way for additional bilateral meetings in the months to come, including potential visits by Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, and Gina Raimondo, the US Commerce Secretary.
According to Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at the Stimson Centre, "Beijing agreed to the visit because it seems to be the one thing that is blocking many other things, such as working-level dialogues and the visits by other cabinet members."
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These discussions could result in a meeting between the leaders of the two nations when they attend the APEC summit in San Francisco in November and the G20 summit in India in September.
Sun said, "Xi does want to visit San Francisco. "In addition to APEC, he wants a bilateral meeting with Biden. That implies that the foundation must be laid now.