Stating that there has been a 7x jump in the new cases to 2.61 lakh a day from a month ago period’s 35,000 cases, analysts at Bofa Securities said they have grown ''even more concerned that rising Covid-19 cases pose a risk to our still shallow recovery''.
In its base case, the brokerage said it sees a 9 percent growth in the gross value added growth in FY22 after a 6.4 percent contraction on a GVA basis. "It remains to be seen if this second wave of Covid-19 cases subsides without a serious national-level lockdown. A month of nationwide lockdown costs 1-2 percent of GDP. Given the high economic cost, we expect the Centre and state governments to try to contain the spread with the tightening of Covid-19 regulations, night curfews and localised lockdowns," it said.
It can be noted that already, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has assured that a national lockdown will not be implemented. The brokerage said more than three-fourths of the cases are coming from 10 of the 29 states, and also noted that many states have followed Maharashtra's lead in announcing stringent restrictions. It said only 1.2 percent of the population has been vaccinated with both doses as of now, while 7.8 percent has received the first dose.
By the end of 2021, it expects 34 percent of the population to get vaccinated, which it called as the bear scenario. A strong uptake of the newly cleared Sputnik vaccine of Russia can take up the vaccinations to 40 percent or the middle scenario.
Amid COVID spurt, leading brokerages downgrade India’s GDP forecast
GDP: China's economy grows by a record 18.3 pc in the first quarter
Second wave of Covid-19 threat poses increased risks for India’s fragile economic recovery: Report