Beijing: The population of China, the most populous country on Earth, declined last year for the first time in more than 60 years, according to official data released on Tuesday.
In a sharp decline that analysts fear could stifle economic growth and put additional pressure on already strained public coffers, the 1.4 billion person nation looked to record low birth rates as its workforce ages Is.
According to Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), at the end of 2022, the population of mainland China was projected to be around 1,411,750,000, down 850,000 from the end of the previous year. The NBS reported that there were 9.56 million births and 10.41 million deaths in 2017.
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China's population last declined during the worst famine in its modern history, brought on by Mao Zedong's disastrous Great Leap Forward agricultural policy in the early 1960s.
Due to concerns over population growth, China ended its strict one-child policy in 2016 and began allowing couples to have three children in 2021.
But for a nation that has long relied on its large workforce as a driver of economic growth, that has not been able to reverse the demographic decline.
According to Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management, the population may begin to decline in the coming years. The demographic dividend cannot be a structural driver of economic growth in China, he continued.
"Productivity growth, driven by government policies, will have to rely more heavily on economic growth." On China's heavily censored internet, news of the population decline quickly gained popularity, prompting some to express concern for their nation's future. On the service Weibo, which is similar to Twitter, one comment said, "Without children, the state and the nation have no future."
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Another comment from a well-known "Patriot" influencer read, "Having children is also a social responsibility." However, others cited the skyrocketing cost of living and the challenges associated with child-rearing in contemporary China.
One replied, "I love my mother, but I will not have children." Another person commented, "No one thinks about why we don't want (kids) and don't want to get married.
Many local governments have already started taking action to encourage couples to have children. Shenzhen, a megacity in the south, for example, offers birth bonuses and allowances until the child is three years old.
When a couple has their first child, they automatically receive 3,000 yuan ($444); They get 10,000 yuan for their second and third children.
For couples who have a second child, the city of Jinan in the east of the country is offering a 600 yuan monthly stipend from January 1.
According to Xiujian Peng, a researcher at Australia's Victoria University, Chinese people are "getting used to the small family" because of the country's long-standing one-child policy.
She continued, "If the Chinese government does not come up with effective measures to promote conception, fertility will continue to decline. Analysts argue that much more work needs to be done."
To reduce the cost of raising children, a comprehensive policy package is needed that addresses pregnancy, parenting and education,
"In particular, the job insecurity of women after giving birth needs to be addressed." He Yafu, an independent demographer, highlighted the "decline in women of childbearing age, which fell by five million per year between 2016 and 2021" as a result of population ageing.
The Chinese population could decline by an average of 1.1% a year, according to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences updated last year and shared with AFP.
That team's most pessimistic estimate of demographers suggests that only 587 million people will be living in China in 2100, less than half of its current population. The United Nations estimates that India will overtake China this year to become the world's most populous country.
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According to Peng, China's aging and shrinking population will be a serious concern. "From now until 2100, this will have a significant impact on China's economy."