The world took a dangerous turn in 2022. High-intensity conflict broke out in Europe something widely considered unimaginable just a few years ago while tensions continue to escalate between the United States and China over Taiwan.
The war between Russia-Ukraine has exposed new raw nerves in the Global South. Global South leaders also believe, particularly when it comes to sanctions, that Western governments have put fighting Russia over the global economy. The war has shown light on non-western middle powers influence and autonomy. There is also a risk of US becoming embroiled in a military confrontation with either China or Russia has risen.
The war in Ukraine has roiled Europe and shaken up the global economy. Its ripple effects will continue to be felt around the globe. In 2023 we can see 10 conflicts that can happen, report of Crisis Group’s flagship annual publication. The potential for conflict on the Korean peninsula and between Iran and Israel remain high.
Ukraine has resisted Russia’s assault, but after nearly a year of fighting, there’s no end in sight to the war. Putin has repeatedly referenced Russia’s nuclear capacity, seemingly aiming to warn off the West, though he has recently walked back his rhetoric. The war has created probably the highest risk of nuclear confrontation in 60 years. This war has also sets the stage for what could be a long standoff, with Europe poised for ever more dangerous showdowns, whatever happens in Ukraine.
In Iran, massive anti-regime protests have merciless crackdown and its supply of weapons to Russia have left the Islamic Republic more isolated than at any point in decades just as a crisis over its nuclear program is brewing. Talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, stalled since early September, are now in deep freeze. At least gaining an understanding over each other’s red lines could help keep a lid on tensions until there is more space for de-escalation and substantive diplomatic engagement.
Yemen, a truce in April between Huthi rebels and the country’s internationally recognised government, backed primarily by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), lapsed in October. Major fighting has not resumed, but both sides are preparing to go back to war. In early April, the UN announced a two-month truce between Hadi’s government and the Huthis. A genuine settlement has to meet all major Yemeni factions’ requirements and probably requires UN mediation. But with the Huthis sensing that they get more through intransigence and Iran, the one outside actor with some influence over the group, in no mood to help, such a settlement is perhaps the least likely scenario.
Ethiopia has seen one of the deadliest wars, in and around Ethiopia Tigray region, has now been in halt. Hostilities have broken out in late 2020, when Tigray’s forces seized a series of national military bases in the region, claiming to be pre-empting a federal intervention. The Eritreans, for their part, have not pulled out ... nor have Tigrayans handed over weapons. The Ethiopian prime minister recognizes the need for magnanimity is unclear. Equally critical, though, is whether, if he does, he can sell that to Isaias, who joined the war hoping to kill off his archenemy the TPLF.
Pakistan is entering an election year with a divided politics, as Khan’s exit from the office last spring has come alongside the fall from the Pakistan Army grace. Countrywide, violent protests intensified when Sharif’s government rejected Khan’s demands for snap polls. Another political crisis is the last thing Pakistan needs atop many other challenges, as this year, devastating floods submerged a third of the country, affecting one in seven Pakistanis; 20.6 million people still require humanitarian aid. Credible estimates put total damages and economic losses at $31.2 billion, with at least another $16.3 billion required for recovery. Taliban’s sheltering of Pakistani militants in Afghanistan and to Islamabad’s own failed bid, mediated by the Taliban, to strike a deal with militants. Having hosted Taliban leaders for decades during the U.S. war in Afghanistan, Islamabad appears to be struggling to impose its will on its erstwhile ally.
And several the other nations that have been predicted to witness a conflict are the Democratic Republic of Congo and Great lakes, the Sahel, Haiti, Taiwan and Armenia and Azerbaijan, as per the International crisis group report.
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