New Delhi: Climate change is intensifying El Nino events, which are a natural and sporadic warming of a portion of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns.
A world still reeling from the effects of the war in Ukraine is expected to be negatively impacted by warmer, drier weather brought on by an El Nino that arrived earlier than usual. This will affect global food security.
Climate change is intensifying El Nino events, which are a natural, sporadic warming of a portion of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns. This one was announced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in June, which is a month or two earlier than usual. This allows it time to develop. There is a one in four chance, according to scientists.
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A strong El Nino typically results in less rainfall for the thirsty crop, which is bad news for rice farmers, especially in Asia where 90% of the world's rice is produced and consumed.
El Ninos in the past have caused extreme weather, from drought to floods.
Rising rice prices as a result of production shortfalls are already "alarm bells," according to Abdullah Mamun, a research analyst at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). In Thailand, the cost of 5 percent broken white rice was on average about 16 percent higher in June than it was in June of the previous year.
Because of devastating floods in Pakistan, a major exporter of rice, global stocks of the grain have decreased significantly since last year. El Nino this year could exacerbate other problems for nations that grow rice, like the war's effect on fertiliser availability and some nations' restrictions on rice exports. According to a recent report by research company BMI, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Nepal are particularly at risk.
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Over the horizon, there is uncertainty, Mamun said. The average temperature across the globe recently surpassed records. By the end of June, the monsoon rains over India were less intense than usual. On Monday, Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged his ministers to prepare for a protracted dry season. Additionally, in the Philippines, water is being carefully managed by the government to safeguard vulnerable areas.
A few nations are preparing for a food shortage. After less rain than anticipated and a historic heat wave scorched wheat, India decided to limit rice exports last year amid concerns that domestic food prices would soar. Indonesia was among the countries hardest hit by this decision.
India announced last month that it would provide Indonesia, Senegal, and Gambia with more than 1 million metric tonnes (1.1 million US tonnes) of grain to help them meet "their food security needs."
Another key factor is fertiliser. Fertiliser exports were among those hit by sanctions against Belarus, a Russian ally, for violating human rights, so China, a major producer, restricted exports to keep domestic prices in check. Fertilisers are not specifically mentioned in the sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, but the conflict has disrupted shipments of the three main chemical fertilisers: potash, phosphorus, and nitrogen.
Although many nations are still looking for new sources, Bangladesh was able to replace lost potash shipments from Belarus by finding suppliers in Canada.
The amount of fertiliser available to farmers like Abu Bakar Siddique, who cultivates 1.2 hectares (3 acres) in northern Bangladesh, was sufficient to maintain his yields last year. However, with less rainfall, he had to rely more on electric pumps for his winter harvest at a time when there was a power shortage brought on by a lack of diesel and coal due to the war.
This raised my expenses, he claimed.
Beau Damen, a natural resources officer with the Food and Agriculture Organisation based in Bangkok, Thailand, said while each El Nino is unique, historical patterns indicate that the lack of rainfall in South and Southeast Asia will dredge the soil and have cascading effects in the coming years. According to him, some nations, such as Indonesia, may be more susceptible in the early stages of the phenomenon.
According to Kusnan, a farmer in East Java, Indonesia, rice farmers have attempted to prepare for this by planting earlier so that when the El Nino strikes, the rice might be ready for harvest and require less water. Like many Indonesians, Kusnan goes by one name only and expressed his hope that the high yields from the previous year would help make up for any losses this year.
Joko Widodo, the president of Indonesia, has emphasised the importance of water management in the coming weeks, warning that a number of factors, such as export restrictions and fertiliser shortages, may combine with the El Nino to "make this a particularly damaging event."
In the Punjab state of northern India, 52-year-old farmer Baldev Singh is already concerned. He usually plants rice from late June to mid-July, but the paddies must then be flooded by the monsoon rains. Early this month, less than a tenth of the usual rainfall had fallen, and then floods ravaged northern India, destroying recently planted young crops.
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Even though farmers like Singh typically don't eat rice and irrigation of rice fields has drained the area's aquifers, the government has encouraged Punjab farmers to grow rice alongside their traditional wheat crops since the 1960s. But he continues to expand it, relying on the security of fixed-price purchases from the government.
Given the lack of rain, Singh might need to drill wells. He dug down 200 feet (60 metres) last year to find water. Our ruin has been caused by rice. I have no idea what the future holds," he said.