The Bihar election (my forecast was 175 seats for JDU+ and 60 seats for NDA; actual result was 178 seats for JDU+ and 58 seats for NDA) raises expectations from all, but the only way to go is down.
Most pollsters have bitten the dust in forecasting the American election. Everyone had counted Donald Trump out of the race, and look, he is the presumptive Republican candidate for president of the US. Most did not give Bernie Sanders a chance, and he is continuing to give Hillary Clinton a strong fight.
Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have just finish polling. The results for these major state elections will be announced on May 19.
In each of the 4 states, the BJP made strong inroads in the 2014 General Election, compared to the 2011 Assembly results.
In 2011, in the 4 states put together, the BJP had a minuscule fraction of the seats (0.6%), and an average vote-share of just 5%. In the 2014 national elections, the BJP obtained a large increase in its weighted vote-share in these four states (an average of 20.5%), with the largest increase in Assam, where it “obtained” a majority in terms of leads (69 out of 126 seats), and a vote-share of 36.9%.
However, if the actual results are at significant variance with us (and the opinion polls), then May 19 would mark the beginning of Congress’s revival.
Assam total seats- 126
BJP congress AIUDF India Today 79-93 26-33 6-10 ABP 81 33 10 Times New 57 41 18West Bengal total seats- 294
BJP Congress TMC India today 01-05 38-51 233-253 ABP 01 126 163 Times New 4 45 167Kerala total seats- 140
LDF UDF BJP India today 88-101 38-48 0-3 Times New 78 58 02Tamil Nadu toal seats- 234
DMK BJP AIADMK India Today 124-140 0-3 89-101 News Nation 114-118 04 95-99Punducherry total seats- 30
congress AIADMK NR congress Times New 14 05 09