USA: Gartner, Inc. The most recent forecast predicts a 3.6% decline in global semiconductor revenue in 2023. The market is expected to grow by 4% and reach $618 billion in 2022.
According to Richard Gordon, practice vice president at Gartner, "the short-term outlook for semiconductor revenue has deteriorated." The semiconductor market will suffer in 2023 as a result of the rapidly deteriorating global economy and declining consumer demand.
In 2023, the global semiconductor market is expected to generate $596 billion in revenue, down from the previously estimated $623 billion.
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The consumer-driven market and the enterprise-driven market are currently at odds with each other in the semiconductor market. Declining disposable incomes due to rising inflation and interest rates is a major factor in the weakness of consumer-driven markets.
However, the shift of consumer discretionary spending away from technology purchases and into other areas such as travel, leisure and entertainment is also having a negative effect.
On the other hand, enterprise-driven markets, such as enterprise networking, enterprise computing, industrial, medical, and commercial transportation, have remained relatively resilient so far, despite the macroeconomic downturn and geopolitical concerns.
"Strategic investments made by corporations looking to strengthen their infrastructure to continue to support the growing workforce, business expansion plans and ongoing digitization strategies," Gordon noted, due to relative strength in enterprise-driven markets.
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Memory sales will fall 16% in 2023
The memory market is bracing for the rest of 2022 with declining demand, bloated inventories, and significantly lower prices to customers. As a result, it is predicted that the memory market will see no change in 2022 and a 16.2% decline in revenue in 2023.
The worsening economic outlook is negatively affecting the production of smartphones, PCs and other consumer electronics, which will lead to an oversupply of DRAM for the rest of 2022 and the first three quarters of 2023.
According to Gartner analysts, DRAM revenue will fall 2.6% to $90.5 billion in 2022 and then fall 18% to $74.2 billion in 2023.
In the third quarter of 2022, the NAND fab outage that occurred in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to result in an inventory excess in the first half of 2023.
This increase in prices and the concealment of a rapidly deteriorating demand environment resulted in this surplus. NAND revenue is projected to increase by 4.4%, reaching $68.8 billion in 2022, but decline by 13.7% to $59.4 billion in 2023.
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“While the macroeconomic environment will be poor and consumer demand weak, we expect better semiconductor consumption than business investment.
As a result, consumer sentiment and spending will have less of an immediate impact on markets such as industrial, telecom infrastructure and data centers, according to Gordon.