The rising number of coronavirus ( COVID-19) infections in recent weeks have reignited uncertainties related to the near-term outlook, the Indian rating agency ICRA said on Thursday. ICRA Ratings, a division of global rater Moody's Investors Service, said the uncertainty will persist over the next few months until the vaccines become available in India for all adults. Earlier in the day, the Reserve bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das had emphasized that the economic recovery will continue unabated regardless of the surge in cases and he does not see a downward revision in the central bank's 10.5 percent real GDP growth estimate for the financial year 2022, and he does not see lockdowns either. Notably, India reported over 55,000 fresh infections on Wednesday, including 31,000 in Maharashtra alone, which is the state's highest-ever daily count since the onset of the crisis. "Although the GDP has reverted to pre-COVID levels in Q3 and Q4 FY21, uncertainty related to the near-term outlook has risen considerably in the recent weeks, following the spate of new COVID-19 infections, which have necessitated localised restrictions," the rating agency said. The rapid economic recovery witnessed in India in H2 CY2020 has given way to an uneven performance amongst the lead indicators in the last two months, its principal economist Aditi Nayar said. "One year post the lockdown, a favourable base effect will optically boost the performance of most sectors in March 2021," she said. She added that the GDP will register a 2 percent growth in the ongoing fourth quarter of 2021.
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