USA: Kevin McCarthy, the recently elected Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives, is reportedly getting ready to travel to Taiwan. The news should not surprise anyone.
It is to be expected that McCarthy, who is fiercely anti-China and devoted to his party's right wing, which prevented him from being elected 15 times, will do his best to make life as difficult as possible for the Biden administration and Will work to sabotage. Emphasizing greater dogma wherever possible for stability in Washington's relations with Beijing.
The Pentagon is already preparing backup plans in light of this visit. When Nancy Pelosi made a controversial trip to Taiwan in August, it sparked a crisis as China retaliated with brutal military exercises, raising fears of an imminent conflict between the US and China over the island's fate.
Also Read: Israel attacks Gaza after a deadly raid
The Republican Party in particular would naturally want nothing more than to drive US-China relations toward conflict, by imposing even more harsh policies against Beijing and escalating an already escalating Cold War.
Taiwan has always been a matter of clear Chinese policy. Beijing views the island as a part of its territory and believes that the US is inciting "Taiwan independence" with the aim of harming the whole of China. However, Beijing should resist the temptation this time.
McCarthy's immediate and public announcement of his intention to travel to Taiwan is provocative and intended to attack China, but an escalating response would be more trouble for Beijing than it's worth.
Also Read: Woman killed her two children, tried to strangle the third one and then...
First, it must be remembered that Kevin McCarthy, unlike Nancy Pelosi who represented the same party, is an opposition politician who opposes the executive branch of government.
Beijing was upset about his visit partly because the Biden administration did nothing to stop it other than issuing public warnings. McCarthy, on the other hand, is a member of the Republican Party, and the White House has no influence on his travel plans.
Although both US parties agree that China should be included, he is an opposition politician who opposes the executive branch of his country's government. As a result, his trip has lower political stakes and less responsibility for China that the Biden administration will be able to pin on if he moves forward.
Although China places a high priority on maintaining its territorial integrity, a strong response from Beijing in response to McCarthy's visit would be counterproductive to Beijing's long-term objectives.
US politicians have repeatedly expressed their desire to replicate the "Ukraine model" in East Asia. This includes inciting conflict between two rival states so that Washington can increase military influence in the region, undermine regional economic integration, and enlist allies.
The US actively promotes instability in Asia through the Taiwan issue. For example, it is forcing the Philippines to take a stance on a possible Taiwan conflict. By doing so, it aims to break Manila's increasingly "non-aligned" stance towards China and the growing economic ties between the two countries.
The more instability and insecurity the US can sow in the region around Taiwan, the greater its influence on other countries. The US wants to establish a control system similar to NATO where it is dominated by Asian countries through dependence; It does not want them to link their economies with China.
Therefore, if Beijing reacts too strongly to defend its position, it fuels other anti-China movements. It is no coincidence that in August 2022, several new anti-China sanctions were imposed by the White House and Congress following the Taiwan crisis.
The false analogy between Taiwan and Ukraine will also be used to garner sympathy, support and interest in Taipei in other Western countries. Overreacting is a lose-lose situation for China, especially if Beijing is almost expected to go to war as a result of Western media scaremongering; Anything less would paint China as spineless (as it did after Pelosi's visit).
In view of this, China should oppose Kevin McCarthy's visit more forcefully not militarily but diplomatically. Don't fall for the hawks and let them win.
Beijing should simply respond, as it eventually did with Pelosi, by expelling McCarthy from the country and blocking any potential business she may have, as well as severing US-China relations and publicly criticizing the US presidential administration. Forced to "support" from. China policy, which is still the official position of Washington, legally if not de facto.
Also Read: Iranian embassy attacked by gunman
The US and mainstream media have the ability to skew the discourse of such an incident in a way that damages China. Above all, another Taiwan Strait military crisis would be a huge backlash. Beijing is probably aware of Washington's strategy with Taiwan, but restraint is as important to success as resistance to physical force.