Beijing: US house speaker Nancy Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan may result in disturbed American-China relations, but analysts say that Beijing is unlikely to change its plans before a significant leadership reshuffle.
There is no plan to secure the third term in the office for President Xi Jinping when the ruling Communist Party caught the Congress twice in the decline as a result of a tense situation in Taiwan Strait.
In the mainland China, nationalist spirit is increasing, and Beijing has threatened "strong measures" if the pelosi moves forward with a trip. Its response, if she goes, according to observers, how confident China is under Xi.
Pelosi's journey to the autonomous island, which claims Beijing and threatened anx with force, would be a stop at its Asian tour, which was going on in Singapore on Monday. Taiwan's inclusion in the program, including Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, has not yet been confirmed by the passenger.
Beijing is extremely sensitive about Taiwan, especially in the light of the sale of American weapons and the growing official contacts with Washington, which does not have any formal connection with Taipei.
The President Joe Biden received a phone call from XI last week, in which he advised him to maintain one-China principle and "Those who play with fire would be destroyed by it." Attempting to assure XI that the US policy towards Taiwan was unchanged, Biden said Washington opposed any unilateral attempts to change the status quo or endanger peace and stability on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
Pelosi would be the most ranked American officials to travel to Taiwan in 25 years if they did so. According to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, it will go beyond Beijing's "Red Line", and over the weekend, the army drilled a live-fire from the coast of Fujian province, which is next to Taiwan.
It occurs in a delicate political moment for Beijing. In the party Congress, XI is estimated to take over to break the record for the third time, but the economy is struggling under Covid-19 controls, and Western relations deteriora Are you
Priority One, according to a political analyst on Chinese mainland, who is familiar with Beijing's thinking, is to prevent any significant decline in relations with the US before the party Congress.
The analysts, who wanted to be anonymous due to the delicate nature of the situation, said "China-US relations could not be spoiled" and that it was the tone set by the party [Pelosi's potential Taiwan trip was reported]. Beijing is extremely concerned about the position of getting out of the hand, especially in the case of an unknown struggle.
According to Economist and Research Associate George Magnus at the China Center at Oxford University, Beijing and Washington are in a difficult position.
According to him, "[Pelosi's] Taiwan has been traveled] has clearly been seen as a challenge by China, and as a weapon of a senior politician by the US," he said. " Both of them feel under pressure to vengean or protest respectively.
Magnus said that when Xi was running for the election in the party Congress again, he wants to handle what is considered as "control and firm as a stimulation."
There will be an ideal situation for Beijing if Pelosi decided to postpone the journey.
According to Deng Uwen, a former editor of The Study Times newspaper, a party mouthpiece, "It will be a big win for Xi because he can successfully stop the journey and claim credits to confirm a lower line on the issue of Taiwan and confirm a lower line on the issue of Taiwan. Is - that people like Pelosi are not allowed to travel. ”
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