New Delhi: UK supermajor BP said in its annual energy outlook, India will by mid-2020s surpass China as the world's largest energy growth market, accounting for over a quarter of incremental global demand. As per source report, the 2019 edition explores the key uncertainties that could impact the shape of global energy markets out to 2040. it state that "The greatest uncertainties over this period involve the need for more energy to support continued global economic growth and rising prosperity, together with the need for a more rapid transition to a lower-carbon future. These scenarios highlight the dual challenge that the world is facing,".
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The report said Global energy demand is expected to increase by around a third by 2040, driven by improvements in living standards, particularly in India, China and across Asia. This will be met mostly by natural gas, which is expected to overtake coal as the second largest source of energy by the mid-2020s and converging on oil by 2040. India's energy consumption will rise by 156 per cent to 1,928 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040 from 754 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2017. This at an annual growth of 4.2 per cent, Much of the increase in global energy demand is concentrated in developing Asia (India, China, and Other Asia), where rising prosperity and improving living standards support increasing energy consumption per head.
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It said "China's transition to a more sustainable pattern of economic growth means that by the mid-2020s, India surpasses China as the world's largest growth market, accounting for over a quarter of the growth in global energy demand over the Outlook. Even so, China remains the largest market for energy: roughly double the size of India in 2040,"
All of the net global growth in industrial demand is met by natural gas and electricity, with these fuels accounting for around two-thirds of the energy used in industry by 2040. Coal consumption within industry declines as China, the EU and North America switch to cleaner, lower-carbon fuels, partially offset by growth in India and Other Asia, the outlook report said.
Almost all of the growth in power demand stems from developing economies, led by China and India.