On Thursday, Moody's Investors Service boosted India's GDP prediction to 9.5 percent for calendar year 2022 and 8.4 percent for the fiscal year beginning April 1, citing high oil prices and supply disruptions as a drag on growth.
Moody's said the economic rebound following the first and second Covid waves, which occurred in 2020 and 2021, has been stronger than projected, citing GST collection, retail activity, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as evidence of'solid momentum.'
"We increased our projection for India's calendar year growth to 9.5 percent from 7 percent in 2022, while keeping our forecast for 5.5 percent growth in 2023. In fiscal years 2022-23 and 2023-24, this amounts to 8.4 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively," Moody's noted in an update to its Global macroeconomic outlook 2022-23.
During the Delta wave, the speed of recovery from the first lockdown-led contraction in the June quarter of 2020 and following lockdown-led contraction in the June quarter of 2021 was faster than predicted.
In November of last year, Moody's predicted that India's economy would grow 7.9 percent in the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2022-23. According to official forecasts, the Indian economy would grow at a rate of 9.2 percent in the current fiscal year, which ends on March 31.
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