Rabat: North African phosphate superpower Morocco has experienced a time of boom as a result of a global fertilizer supply shock, which was made worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, giving the country a new diplomatic capital.
Analysts claim Rabat is using its negotiating position, particularly in the long-running conflict over the disputed Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony that is also claimed by rebels backed by Algeria.
Morocco is expected to post record earnings for a second year in a row as farmers around the world compete for phosphate, which has become scarce due to sanctions against Russia and a Chinese export embargo, the world's top producer.
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Despite long-term damage to soil and groundwater, synthetic fertilizers are essential to industrial agriculture and the world's grain supply. Phosphate is a major component of these fertilizers.
Because it is essential to ensuring the security of the world's food supply, it is a strategic mineral for the future, according to agricultural policy expert Abderrahim Handouf.
"Fertilizer is the most efficient way to increase agricultural productivity when population increases."
Morocco controls about 31% of the global trade of the substance, according to OCP, the country's state-owned phosphate company.
OCP, which has a monopoly on the market nationally, is on track to generate more than 131 billion dirhams ($12.4 billion) in revenue this year, up 56% from 2021, which was already a banner year.
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According to industry expert Muneer Haleem, as the world recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and market leaders such as China imposed export restrictions, prices had already started rising.
Additionally, according to Halim, India, one of the world's largest importers, had "strong demand" and "exhausted its stocks".
Then, as a result of sanctions imposed by Western countries following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fertilizer prices skyrocketed.
As a result, Morocco became an important alternative supplier.
The kingdom's exports of phosphates and their derivatives increased by 2/3 year-on-year in the first nine months of 2022, according to the most recent official figures.
About 70% of the world's phosphate reserves are in Morocco, which has been mining in four locations since 1921, including in the controversial Western Sahara.
Since 2008, Morocco's OCP has quadrupled its production capacity, reaching 12 million tonnes last year and is on track to reach 15 million by the end of 2023.
This elevates it as a major player in the market which is concerned about future supply shocks.
In a report released this year, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said that "fertilizer supplies remain constrained, stocks are running low, and geopolitical tensions could lead to additional supply restrictions at short notice."
As a result, Morocco is benefiting from an inflow of money as well as an expansion of diplomatic influence, particularly with regard to Western Sahara.
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Although the kingdom considers the vast desert region a natural extension of its borders, the Polisario movement, backed by Morocco's bitter rival Algeria, calls for independence there.
The issue has become central to Rabat's diplomacy.
By referring to it as "the prism through which Morocco views its international environment", King Mohammed VI in August demanded that Morocco's allies "clarify" their position on the matter.
The Moroccan newspaper L'Economist claims that the OCP has developed into "the economic branch of Moroccan diplomacy".
After Lima established diplomatic ties with Polisario's self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, Rabat recalled a shipment of 50,000 tons of fertilizer bound for Peru in September.
But OCP also provides carrot along with stick.
With branches in 16 different African countries, a fertilizer factory in Nigeria, and a deal to open a new factory in Ethiopia signed in September, the company is growing its presence there.