EU: A new study suggests that a system of ocean currents that carries heat northward across the North Atlantic could disintegrate by the middle of the century. Scientists have previously warned that such a disintegration could result in a catastrophic rise in sea level and extreme weather all over the world.
The threat of the collapse of the Atlantic current has been discussed by scientists recently both more and less. It even prompted a movie that strayed far from the science. An event of this magnitude is unlikely to occur this century, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change two years ago. But the latest research, which was released in Nature Communications, raises the possibility that it may not be as remote and improbable as conventional science claims.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a crucial system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is responsible for circulating water throughout the Atlantic Ocean. The estimated completion time is 1,000 years, but since the middle of the 20th century, it has slowed down even more.
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According to scientists from Germany and the US, the circulation could slow down even more or stop altogether, resulting in more extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere, sea level rise along the East Coast of the US, and drought for millions of people in southern Africa. It's unclear when, though.
As a proxy, or method of evaluating, this circulation, Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen, two researchers from Denmark, examined sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic between 1870 and 2020 for the new study. They discovered that, given current levels of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, the system could implode as early as 2025 and as late as 2095. The collapse is unlikely to happen this century, contrary to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's prediction made in 2021.
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According to Julio Friedmann, chief scientist at Carbon Direct, a carbon management company, "there are large uncertainties in this study, in many prior studies, and in climate impact assessment overall, and scientists occasionally miss important aspects that can lead to both over and underprediction of impacts." "However, the conclusion is clear: action must be both quick and significant to address major climate risks."
A thorough analysis of the Ditlevesen study was published on RealClimate, a website that publishes commentary from climate scientists, by Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of a 2018 study on the topic.
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He described the timing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation's collapse as "highly uncertain," but he also referred to the IPCC estimate as conservative.
In his essay, he stated that "more and more evidence indicates that the risk is much greater than 10% during this century, rather worrying for the next few decades.