Washington: Since the COVID-19 pandemic started, a critical question has remained unanswered by governments and health organisations all over the world: Did the virus originate in animals or leak from a Chinese lab?
According to a person familiar with the report who wasn't authorised to speak publicly, the US Department of Energy has now determined with "low confidence" that it started with a lab leak. The report is not widely known. Others in the US intelligence community, however, are in disagreement.
According to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, there is currently no agreement within the US government as to how COVID came to be. There simply isn't agreement among the intelligence community.
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The Wall Street Journal broke the news of the DOE's findings for the first time over the weekend, stating that the classified report was based on fresh intelligence and mentioned in an update to a 2021 document.
An extensive network of labs is under the DOE's management. On Monday, White House representatives declined to confirm press reports about the evaluation.
According to a summary of an intelligence report that was made public in 2021, four members of the US intelligence community had a low degree of confidence that the virus had first infected a human from an animal, and a fifth had a moderate degree of confidence.
While some researchers are willing to consider the lab leak theory, others are still of the opinion that the virus originated in animals, underwent mutation, and then jumped into humans as it has in the past. The true cause of the pandemic may not be discovered for many years, if at all.
A comment on the report was declined by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The data that the DOE used to make its assessment was accessible to all 18 offices of the US intelligence community.
It's "reasonable to infer," according to Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard, that the new intelligence the agencies had has to do with activities at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.
According to her, a 2018 research proposal co-written by researchers from that country and their US partners "basically described a blueprint for COVID-like viruses."
Since SARS, there have been widespread worries that coronaviruses could be the cause of the next pandemic. This has led the Wuhan institute to study coronaviruses for years.
No intelligence service has publicly stated that they think the coronavirus that caused COVID-19 was intentionally released. This was made very clear in the unclassified 2021 summary, which stated: "We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon."
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"Lab accidents occur with a startling regularity. Since lab mishaps aren't typically discussed in public, many people aren't aware of them, according to Chan, a co-author of a book about the investigation of the COVID-19 origins. Such incidents "underscore the need to increase transparency and accountability in work with highly dangerous pathogens."
The World Health Organization suggested a more thorough investigation into a potential lab accident last year. Chan expressed her hope that the most recent report will lead to more American investigation. The claim that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory has been deemed "baseless" by China.
The animal to human theory of the coronavirus, in the opinion of many scientists, continues to be much more tenable. They postulate that it first appeared in the wild and then spread from bats to people, either directly or via another animal.
According to a 2021 study published in the journal Cell, the COVID-19 virus is the ninth coronavirus known to infect humans; all of the others are known to have originated in animals.
The animal origin theory was supported by two studies that were published by the journal Science last year. According to that study, the early epicentre was probably in Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. The virus most likely crossed over from animals into humans twice, according to scientists.
Only original research articles that support a natural origin of this virus pandemic are found in the scientific literature, according to evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey of the University of Arizona, who has extensively researched the origins of COVID-19.
He claimed it "speaks volumes" that other members of the intelligence community examined the same data as the DOE and "it apparently didn't move the needle."
Because he doesn't believe the people conducting such intelligence tests "have the scientific expertise to really understand the most important evidence that they need to understand," he said he views them with scepticism.
According to Worobey, the US should be more open and reveal the fresh information that allegedly influenced the DOE.
The DOE finding is made public as House Republicans use their new majority control to look into all facets of the pandemic, including its origin and what they claim were official efforts to hide the fact that it originated in a Wuhan lab.
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As part of their inquiry, Republicans earlier this month wrote letters to Dr. Anthony Fauci, National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, Health Secretary Xavier Beccera, and others.
The nation's foremost expert on infectious diseases under both Republican and Democratic presidents, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is now retired, has dismissed the GOP criticism as nonsense.
The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Mike McCaul of Texas, has requested that the Biden administration give Congress "a full and thorough" briefing on the report and the supporting data.
President Joe Biden thinks it's important to know what happened "so we can better prevent future pandemics," but Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, emphasised that such research "must be done in a safe and secure manner and as transparent as possible to the rest of the world."