Maharashtra's 2024 Assembly elections have set a new record with a voter turnout of 65.11%, the highest since the 1995 state elections. This represents a significant increase compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2019 Assembly elections, which saw voter participation at 61.39% and 61.4%, respectively.
The heightened turnout is expected to be a crucial factor in determining the state's next government, with election results set to be announced on November 23. This year's voter turnout not only exceeded previous numbers but also marked the highest participation in three decades, last seen in 1995 when the turnout reached 71.7%.
Factors Influencing the Surge The record-breaking turnout is likely influenced by intense campaigning and ongoing issues such as reservation debates and corruption allegations. This election is also unique, as it marks the first time that both Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are contesting as divided parties.
Campaigns and Alliances The increase in voter engagement is largely attributed to the vigorous efforts of both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition coalition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti—comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena, and NCP—secured 42.71% of votes, while the MVA—consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena UBT, and NCP SP—garnered 43.91%.
The 3.5% rise in voter turnout could be decisive in this close contest. Additionally, the number of registered voters has grown by 9.5%, with the current total standing at approximately 9.69 crore, compared to 8.85 crore in 2019.
Statements from Key Leaders Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis expressed optimism that the increased voter participation would benefit the ruling Mahayuti coalition. He highlighted that historically, a higher voter turnout has worked in favor of the BJP. In contrast, Congress state chief Nana Patole emphasized that the strong turnout reflects public enthusiasm, suggesting a possible MVA victory. He said that voters are eager for a government dedicated to their welfare.
Urban vs Rural Voter Turnout Provisional data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) shows a higher voter turnout in rural regions compared to urban areas. Kolhapur district led with a turnout of 76.25%, while Mumbai had the lowest at 52.07%. In Kolhapur's Karvir constituency, 84.79% of voters cast their ballots, in a tight contest between Congress candidate Rahul Patil and Shinde Sena's Chandradip Narke.
Meanwhile, South Mumbai's Colaba area reported only 44.49% turnout, with BJP's Rahul Narvekar facing Congress's Hira Dewasi. In the Baramati constituency, featuring a face-off between Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and his nephew Yugendra Pawar from NCP (SP), voter participation reached 71.03%, higher than 2019's 68.82%. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Kopri-Pachpakhadi constituency reported a provisional 59.85% turnout, while Fadnavis’s Nagpur South West had 54.49% participation.
Exit Poll Projections Following the conclusion of voting, exit polls hint at an edge for the Mahayuti alliance over the MVA. The winning coalition needs at least 145 seats in the 288-member assembly to form the government. Predictions from various agencies show the following:
Matrize: 150-170 seats for Mahayuti, 110-130 for MVA. Chanakya Strategies: 152-160 seats for Mahayuti, 130-138 for MVA. People's Pulse: 175-195 seats for Mahayuti, 85-112 for MVA.Pradeep Gupta from Axis My India announced that additional exit poll data would be released on November 21, while CVoter might share its analysis on Thursday.
Historically, exit polls have faced challenges in accurately predicting results. Previous discrepancies were observed during both Lok Sabha and recent Haryana Assembly elections, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding these projections.
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