NEW DELHI: Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent earlier for FY2023. SBI group chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh had also forecast a 15.7 percent growth for the first quarter.
The economy from the gross value added also fared much lower than forecast, logging in only 12.7 percent. At 13.5 percent, real GDP growth has declined by 9.6 percent sequentially, but the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth series shows pick-up in economic momentum, with higher growth at 5.6 percent sequentially in Q1 compared to -4.1 percent in Q1FY22 and 1.9 percent in Q4FY22, Ghosh, said in a note on Thursday.
The headline GDP numbers hide more things than these reveal and it's time to seriously introspect on the measurement of IIP and CPI baskets which were last revised in 2012, he said. Though the GDP grew in double-digits but still it came way below the market expectations and the primary culprit is growth in manufacturing sector which grew by a measly 4.8 percent in Q1, Ghosh said, and pencilled in sharply lower fully year growth at 6.8 percent. Giving a break-up of the rest of the quarters, he expects Q2 to print in at 6.9 percent, Q3 at 4.1 percent and the final quarter to log in a low 4 percent taking the full year number to be 6.8 percent.
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