RUSSIA: The situation along the Ukrainian front remains critical as Russia's military makes incremental yet persistent gains in territory. Over the past few weeks, the Russian army has steadily captured land, advancing one village at a time, which raises concerns about Ukraine's ability to halt this trend or reclaim lost ground.
Since the beginning of October, Russia has seized 478 square kilometers of territory, marking its most significant monthly gain since the early days of the invasion in February 2022, according to an analysis of data from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW). "Russia has been on the offensive for an entire year," noted Meduza, a Russian opposition website that is currently blocked in Moscow. The website also described the past week as one of the most challenging for Ukraine's armed forces.
While the ISW data does not indicate an imminent collapse of the Ukrainian military, concerns linger about the emerging pattern of Russian advances. "What is most concerning is the acceleration of this progression, with a feeling that it cannot be stopped," said former French army colonel Michel Goya, a war historian. He characterized Russia's strategy as one of persistent pressure, aiming to crack Ukrainian defenses.
Moscow continues to announce daily victories, with military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin pointing out that although no single location holds great significance, collectively, these gains represent a substantial success for the Russian army. "The Russian advance, though not rapid, indicates a worsening situation in Ukraine," he said.
Since the war began, Russia has maintained artillery superiority, transforming its economy into a war machine despite facing Western sanctions. The country's military capabilities have been bolstered by support from allies, primarily Iran and North Korea. Khramchikhin remarked, "The Russian war industry produces more weapons than Ukraine receives," highlighting the advantage in ammunition production.
At the start of this year, a freeze on a multi-billion-dollar aid package from the US significantly reduced the supply of weapons to Ukraine. In contrast, approximately three million shells from North Korea have arrived in Russian storage. Moreover, Russia has developed a guidance system for bombs, deploying them extensively.
Instead of taking towns through direct assault, the Russian military has employed a suffocation tactic, attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces. "The principle is to threaten to surround the pockets that are then forced to retreat," explained Goya.
War journalist Alexander Kots, a vocal supporter of the invasion, noted that Russian forces avoided head-on assaults on towns and villages to prevent excessive losses. Instead, they aim to compel Ukrainian troops to withdraw through long, open corridors that are vulnerable to fire.
This gradual advance has begun to erode Ukrainian morale. Kyiv faces challenges in recruitment, and issues of disorganization and corruption within the army have led to desertions and reluctance to fight. "Beating an enemy is killing their hope. When the sacrifice of those who die is for nothing, there is no sense in fighting on," said Goya. A French military leader, who requested anonymity, emphasized that President Volodymyr Zelensky's government is struggling to mobilize amid rising war fatigue among the civilian population.
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