China: The world's largest standing army was able to test the coordination of its personnel, weapons, supplies, and communications thanks to China's massive intimidation campaign this month in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, although the results are not entirely clear, analysts said in Washington on Monday. The People's Liberation Army was overhauled in 2016, and this military show of force required cooperation from the army, navy, air force, and logistics branches. It was the largest since that time. The PLA hasn't always been well-coordinated and has historically been led by the army.
According to analysts at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event, Beijing praised PLA forces' close cooperation in the face of recent tensions, along with evidence of easier logistics involving army long-range artillery and missile units under the military's Eastern Theatre Command. According to Roderick Lee, research director at Air University's China Aerospace Studies Institute, "If the army and rocket force fires were coordinated, that would suggest some level of joint command-and-control at the theatre level," which is the impression Beijing wants to convey. "The actions we're witnessing are definitely meant to send a message and to deter."
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However, it was still unclear how much progress had been made in terms of integration as a whole. The mistakes made by Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February serve as a reminder of the importance of coordination for military performance.
The PLA hasn't tested some capabilities, such as sustained artillery bombardment or blockading ships in the waters surrounding the island, which it would probably need for an actual invasion of Taiwan. The unprecedented exercises China conducted this month highlight the country's increasing reliance on "grey-zone" strategies, which involve combining military and non-military operations. To make its point, it employed coercion in the areas of economic, financial, informational, and cyberspace.
Beijing specifically launched drones over Taiwan's Quemoy archipelago, also known as Kinmen, just off Fujian province, banned some Taiwanese trade, slammed US and European nations that expressed concern over its actions, and waged disinformation campaigns in addition to its various military actions.
Cristina Garafola, a policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, said: "What we're seeing is generally consistent with China's grey-zone approaches." "That's likely to continue moving forward, along with these kinds of grass-roots pressure efforts to change the perception in Taiwan society,"
The analysts added that Beijing's display of force in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this month has set a new baseline that could see China's military react even more forcefully to perceived future transgressions. The PLA would need to inflame tensions even more the next time to prove it means business after breaking several rules by sending record numbers of ships, military aircraft, and drones into and around Taiwan, holding lengthy live-fire drills, and launching missiles over the island and into Japan's exclusive economic zone.
According to M Taylor Fravel, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's security studies programme, "I've got to believe another shoe will drop, one way or another." In other words, "I don't think the genie can be put back into the tube."
China sees Taiwan as a separatist province that should, if necessary, be reunified through force. The self-governing island is not recognised as an independent state by many nations, including the United States. Washington's strategy, however, is to support Taiwan's ability to defend itself militarily as well as its increased influence in international affairs such as crime, health, and aviation, which Beijing opposes. The United States' immediate response will determine a lot of things. The Pentagon has so far resisted verbally but only carried out military drills that were pre-planned before California Democrat Nancy Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan on August 2.
However, the US navy will want to avoid coming off as complacent or appearing to accept Chinese military vessels entering Taiwanese waters after crossing the median line. That could then start a potential escalation cycle of tit-for-tat. Christopher Twomey, an associate professor at the US Naval Postgraduate School, stated that "this is most likely the early stages of a crisis that is going to continue to percolate for months."
It will be crucial for us to convey to both China and our allies that we won't be deterred from exercising our rights to freedom of navigation and that the US Navy will respond in a provocative manner as a result of these exercises. Another issue is the talking points coming out of Washington. Following Beijing's vehement opposition to Pelosi's visit, President Joe Biden's administration adopted the stance that China had manufactured the crisis and overreacted, claiming that numerous US lawmakers had already visited Taipei and that everything should go back to normal. Analysts noted that this tactic runs the risk of making Beijing feel as though its concerns are being disregarded and that its signals have not been taken seriously.
The coming political calendar for the various parties to the tensions is packed with important dates, which only serves to complicate matters. President Xi Jinping is anticipated to win a third term at China's 20th Party Congress, which is currently being prepared for. Taiwan will hold local elections while the US will hold its midterm elections.
Additional official visits, US trade negotiations with Taiwan, US legislation like the Taiwan Relations Act, and additional arms sales are among the unresolved issues that Beijing views as US provocations. According to Garafola, Taiwan's ruling party has refrained from labelling the recent developments as a crisis. This is a result of President Tsai Ing-desire wen's to promote more visits to the island in order to increase its visibility abroad.
Therefore, if they discussed a crisis that resulted from one of these visits, Garafola said, adding that a variety of factors were at work. "This is the beginning of something where we could see more potential flashpoints," the author said.