The US Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to reduce interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive rate cut. This decision is part of the Fed's ongoing efforts to stimulate economic growth while also addressing rising inflation concerns.
Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has made significant progress in tackling inflation by raising interest rates. However, with the current economic conditions, the Fed is shifting its approach. It is now lowering interest rates to encourage demand and support the labor market.
Although inflation is still above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, there are concerns about whether the rising prices are temporary or signaling a more persistent issue. Despite these worries, financial markets continue to expect a quarter-point reduction in the benchmark lending rate.
Market Expectations and Expert Insights The rate decision will be announced at 2 pm on Wednesday (12:30 am Thursday in India), with a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to follow. The central bank's quarterly economic forecasts will also be closely watched for further insights.
Key Aspects of the Fed's Rate Decision Expected Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, placing the target range between 4.25% and 4.5%, according to Bloomberg. Even after this reduction, the rate will remain above the 2.9% median forecast from the Fed’s September meeting.
Dot Plot and Future Rate Cuts: The most scrutinized part of the Fed’s revision will be the “dot plot,” which projects future rate hikes. Economists expect that the Fed could signal up to three more rate cuts in 2025.
Fed’s Language and Strategy: The Fed’s statement is likely to reflect a balanced approach, similar to its November communication, noting that “the risks to achieving the Fed’s goals for employment and inflation.
Potential Stability in January: Some experts, like Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors, predict that the Fed may decide to hold rates steady in January after this expected cut.
This week’s meeting represents a delicate balance between fostering economic growth and maintaining its commitment to controlling inflation. The outcome of Wednesday's decision will provide valuable insight into the Fed's plans for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.