Ankara: In response to the most recent warning from the US State Department regarding sanctions compliance, Turkiye has vowed to forbid the reexport of Western goods to Russia.
The NATO member will nevertheless continue to export domestic goods to Russia despite the fact that general and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 14.
The US and Turkey are once again at odds over Ankara's apparent neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has put Turkish-Russian relations back in the spotlight.
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James O'Brien, the director of the US State Department's Office of Sanctions Coordination, reportedly told Reuters that Turkish authorities have been "very clear" about the prohibition on the re-export of Western goods under sanctions to Russia.
The Istanbul Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Exporters Association reported on March 20 that the Turkish government had given businesses a list of foreign products that couldn't be shipped to Russia.
The declaration was made shortly after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ankara. Similar verbal promises were reportedly made by Ankara to the European Commission that as of March 1 no goods subject to sanctions will be delivered to Russia.
However, this restriction does not apply to products made in Turkiye that include components from other nations and are still free to be exported to Russia.
Washington is committed to monitoring Turkish trade data with Russia between March and April and is continuing to exercise caution.
O'Brien cautioned Ankara regarding its adherence to the sanctions in a press conference last December, stating that secondary curbs could be applied to Turkiye in the event of violations.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, a number of senior US officials have travelled to Turkey to urge the country's banks and private sector to abide by US sanctions against Russia.
After severe sanctions were imposed by a number of Western nations to stop the Russian army from reusing imported goods in weapons systems, such as microchips and chemicals, Turkiye served as a crucial supply route for Russia.
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It is a "open secret," according to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish programme at the Washington Institute, that Turkey has continued to do business with Russia despite Western sanctions since the invasion.
On an annual basis, all trade indicators more than doubled. It is a component of Ankara's neutrality towards Ukraine, he told Arab News.
According to the director, Turkiye has also given Ukraine military support in an effort to balance the security situation around the Black Sea.
Ankara maintained its business ties with Russia. It benefited from capital inflows, expanded trade with Russia, and incentivized Russian oligarchs to invest in Turkiye and purchase real estate, he continued.
The US government is "opposing these efforts and using compliance channels to issue warnings to businesses not to conduct business with Russia and not to accept Russian credit cards. And it's working, Cagaptay said, bringing Turkish businesses on board.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, thousands of wealthy Russians have emigrated to Turkiye, buying property, bringing cash savings, starting hundreds of businesses to get around sanctions, and trying to turn the nation into a financial haven for Russians. One of Russia's principal trading partners is still Turkey.
According to Cagaptay, if Turkiye's government wins the May 14 elections, Ankara will keep up its military support for Kiev, maintain diplomatic relations with Moscow, and to some extent abide by Western sanctions.
"Turkey has deep ties with Russia in various sectors, ranging from energy to foodstuffs and tourism, so it is unlikely that Turkiye will completely disengage from Russia economically in the event of an opposition victory," he continued.
According to Cagaptay, if the opposition prevails, they will support Ukraine more politically and have a tendency to gradually sever some of their economic ties with Russia.
According to experts, US President Joe Biden will take action to further isolate Russia with new sanctions as the US prepares for its 2024 election and will demand more from Turkey in addition to business compliance channels.
According to Cagaptay, the US will pressure Ankara into furthering its disengagement from Russia through government-to-government contacts. On April 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was received by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkiye.
The visit took place at the same time as a phone call between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar to discuss NATO expansion with Finland and Turkey's demand for new F-16 jets and modernization kits from the US.
There is a difference between Turkiye avoiding sanctions against Russia and aiding Russia's circumvention of sanctions through the re-export of sanctioned goods from Europe, according to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara.
According to the most recent statement from the US State Department, "Turkey will limit the latter, not its usual trade with Russia," he said in an interview with Arab News.
The US will pay special attention to dual-use items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, Unluhisarcikli added.
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While Russia won't be pleased with Turkiye's decision, it won't likely react strongly because it can't afford to lose a country like Turkiye entirely, the analyst said.