As the United States and Israel exchanged blows with Iran at the United Nations this week, India is walking a fine balance between rising coalitions in West Asia, said experts.
While on one hand, the government is amplifying its ties with the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia led Sunni-Arab states, on the other, Infrastructure Minister Nitin Gadkari firmly commits on completing the Chabahar development project in Iran in 2018, and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj confirms India’s support for the Palestinian cause, calling it a “reference point” of India’s foreign policy.
“We are acquainted with the complexities of dealing with the Middle East, where there are no straight lines to choose from,” said P.R. Kumaraswamy, Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. “We are basically reaching out to all countries there, with a view to see where they can help us,” he furthur said.
However, matters may go sky-high in October, as the US is projected to announce whether it will continue to give officially state that Iran is in compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) multilateral nuclear deal. If the Trump administration refuses to certify and withdraws from the deal, Iran President Rouhani announced on Wednesday that Iran would respond “decisively and resolutely” indicating that the agreement would be in jeopardy, and made a veiled reference to Mr. Trump as a “rogue newcomer”. In his speech the day before, Mr. Trump had also called Iran a “rogue nation.”
As a result, India’s relations with Iran, including plans to invest $500 million in the Chabahar project, the $1.6 billion rail-line from Iran to Afghanistan, as well as about $9 billion in trade of which about half is in oil, could be impacted, principally if the US raises pressure on New Delhi to lessen ties with Tehran, as it did in 2013 while conferring the JCPOA.
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