Top two telecom companies Jio and Bharti Airtel are consolidating market share moving the telecom industry possibly towards a near 2-player structure , whereas Vodafone and Idea are facing the prospects of losing revenue market share (RMS) due to its finance struggle, according to a report by IIFL Securities. The latest report by IIFL Securities also indicate that tariff increase may not be immediate and instead sees a "high likelihood of price hike in 12-18 months".
"The industry shake-up that ensued post Jio's entry has resulted in a 3+1 market configuration. In our view, the industry is moving to a near 2-player structure – Jio and Bharti – with Vi (Vodafone Idea) likely to lose RMS as it struggles financially," it said. It expected Voda Idea to witness "accelerated RMS loss" due to the tight timeline on statutory payments and "significant tariff hikes looking at least 12 months away".
"We expect Bharti's revenue market share (RMS) in India mobile to rise, from 33 per cent in 2QFY21 to 37 per cent in 3 years. India non-mobile and Africa businesses remain strong," IIFL Securities said in its report. Airtel pegged Jio's revenue market share at 38 per cent as on Q2FY21, Vodafone Idea's share at 22 per cent, and that of state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd at seven per cent. It also pointed to a high likelihood of price increase in 12-18 months.