India’s leading credit rating agency Crisil on Monday cut its FY22 growth estimate for India to 9.5 percent from the earlier 11 percent due to the hit to private consumption and investments following the second wave of COVID-19.

The rating agency joins other watchers who have cut their FY22 growth projections, with some pegging it as low as 7.9 percent. The economy had contracted by 7.3 percent in FY21. Cutting its forecasts, economists at Crisil said "the downward revision is premised on the clearly evident hit to the two engines of growth -- private consumption and investment -- by the second wave." Their note said daily cases have "mercifully" peaked, but added that states will be cautious about unlocking anytime soon owing to risks of another wave and tardy vaccinations.

It underlined that this is unlike what was witnessed after the first wave last fiscal, when a largely uniform and calibrated reopening spurred quite a sharp recovery. The agency further said it has assumed that COVID-19 restrictions will continue and mobility will remain affected in some form or other, at least till August, adding that the pace of recovery will also be a function of how the vaccination drive progresses in the coming months.

A third wave would pose a significant downside risk to the growth forecast, as would a slower-than-anticipated pace of vaccination. In such a pessimistic case, we see GDP growing at 8 percent," the economists said.

G7 corporate tax deal: India likely to benefit from global minimum 15 pc

FICCI urges Minister Piyush Goyal for graded tack to unlock economy

'2020-21 the darkest year for Indian economy..': P Chidambaram