A likely third wave of COVID-19 may peak in November if a new variant, more virulent than the Delta, emerges and becomes fully active by September end, a scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of pandemic said on Monday. At the same time, the third wave may not see the number of new cases going as high as the second wave and is more likely to be on the lines of the first wave.

However, there may not be a third wave if no new variant, more infectious than the Delta, emerges, said Manindra Agrawal, a scientist with IIT-Kanpur who is part of the three-member team of experts tasked to predict the surge in the cases. “Based on the new data, the country may see the third wave of coronavirus peaking in November if there is a new variant more infectious than the existing ones. “Under that circumstance, we may see daily coronavirus cases up to 1.5 lakhs and peak by November. The intensity of the third wave may not be like the second but similar to the first,” said Agrawal.

The second wave of coronavirus, driven by the Delta variant, that swept through the country between March to May, infected lakhs and killed thousands. On May 7, the country recorded 4,14,188 Covid-19 cases.

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