New Delhi: India's GDP growth has been projected at 8.5 percent in FY22, said ratings agency ICRA. According to the ICRA, the year-on-year (YoY) growth of GDP and gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) is expected to reach 8.5 percent and 7.3 percent respectively, in FY2022.
"The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and the ensuing state-wise restrictions was seen across a variety of high-frequency indicators in April-May 2021. Now that the fresh cases have moderated, and restrictions are being eased, we have placed our baseline GDP growth forecast for FY2022 at 8.5 percent," ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said.
Icra said if vaccine coverage is accelerated following the re-centralised procurement policy, the GDP expansion in FY2022 may be as high as 9.5 percent, with a widening upside in Q3 and Q4 of FY2022. In FY2020-21, the country's GDP contracted by 7.3 percent. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had projected real GDP growth at 9.5 percent in 2021-22. For the full year, it expects the GDP growth to exceed the GVA growth by 120 basis points, based on the expectations related to the value of taxes on products.