As per the FICCI Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to expand 7.4 percent in the current fiscal year 2022-23. The survey shows the global economy will grow at a minimum of 6.0 percent and a maximum of 7.8 percent, with rising prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine war offering the greatest hurdle to recovery.
It also predicts that agriculture and allied sectors will rise at a median of 3.3 percent in 2022-23. The manufacturing and service industries are expected to rise by 5.9 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is predicted to begin a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, according to the survey, with a repo rate hike of 50-75 basis points expected before the end of the current fiscal year. According to the survey, the RBI is projected to maintain its support for the ongoing economic recovery by leaving the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review.
The poll did note, however, that the downside risks to growth have increased. While the COVID-19 pandemic remains a threat, the study found that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is creating a substantial impediment to global recovery.