The global investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasts India's GDP growth to rebound to 13 percent in 2021 (above consensus expectations of 10.9 percent) catalysed by the "broad-based availability of an effective vaccine" for COVID-19.

This prediction comes just a day after Moderna announced that its vaccine, which is in Phase-3 of trials, will be over 94 percent effective in preventing COVID-19. Goldman Sachs stated that the availability of an effective vaccine in India could allow containment policies and mobility to normalize by mid-2022. This should allow a meaningful activity rebound in 2021 – particularly in consumer-facing services sectors, where activity remains significantly below pre-COVID levels.

However, it also cautioned that the pace of the rebound will be "restrained by some economic scarring" and a variety of factors including a weak labour market, affected private sector incomes, bleeding balance sheets, and limited economic stimulus. "Overall, it expects real GDP growth to rebound to 13 percent in FY22 after an expected -10.3 percent contraction in FY21.

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