United States: Scientists are cautioning tired governments and populations to prepare for additional waves of COVID-19 as the third winter of the coronavirus pandemic looms in the Northern Hemisphere.

According to Chris Murray, director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent modeling group at the University of Washington that is monitoring the pandemic, there could be up to a million infections per day in the United States alone. winter. This will be almost double of the daily total as it is now.

Scientists anticipate a series of Covid waves across the UK and Europe as people spend more time indoors during the colder months, with essentially no masking or social distancing restrictions.

Availability of highly effective COVID treatments, vaccination and booster drives, prior infections, mild versions, and past outbreaks all contributed to experts' prediction that cases could rise again in the coming months, increasing hospitalizations. And the death rate is unlikely to increase.

According to Murray, most people who have never encountered the virus are those who are most at risk.
These predictions raise new concerns about when nations will exit the COVID emergency phase and enter a state of endemic disease, where communities with high vaccination rates experience smaller outbreaks, perhaps on a seasonal basis. .

Many experts had speculated that the infection would begin in the first half of 2022, but their predictions were derailed by the appearance of the severely mutated Omicron coronavirus variant.

Adam Kucharsky, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said, "We have to 'Is the epidemic over? Need to put aside the idea of ​​burden of disease.
He continued, "I once heard that the definition of endemism is that life gets a little worse.

The question of whether a new variant will defeat the dominant Omicron subvariant is still a potential wild card.
According to a recent World Health Organization (WHO) Europe report, the "worst-case scenario" would be when that variant results in more severe disease and the former is able to evade immunity.

The report, based on a model from Imperial College London, states that "all scenarios (with new variants) indicate the likelihood of a future major wave at a level that is worse than the 2020/2021 pandemic waves.

Because many people rely on rapid home tests that do not report to government health officials and unclear infection rates, several disease experts cited in Reuters interviews said it has become more difficult to predict for Covid.

Because of the high transmittance of BA. 5, the Omicron subvariant that is currently causing infections in many areas, many patients who are hospitalized for other diseases may test positive for it and join severe cases, even if covid - 19 Do not be the cause of their sorrow.

Other unknowns, according to scientists, are how effective booster campaigns might be as well as whether the combination of vaccination and COVID infection, or so-called hybrid immunity, is providing greater protection for people.

Anyone who claims to be able to predict how this pandemic will develop is either overconfident or lying, according to infectious disease epidemiologist David Downey of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Experts are also keeping a close eye on events in Australia, where hospitals are overtaken by Covid and a resurgent flu season. After several quiet flu seasons, they claim Western countries may follow a similar pattern.

"If it happens there, it can happen here. Let's get ready for legitimate flu season," said John McCauley, director of the Francis Crick Institute at the Worldwide Influenza Center in London.

According to the WHO, each nation should continue to approach afresh with all the weapons of the pandemic arsenal, including vaccinations, testing and interventions such as social distancing or masking, and social distancing.

Israel's government recently halted routine COVID testing of passengers at its international airport, but faced a significant surge in the practice "within days", according to Sharon Alroy-Preis, the head of the country's public health service. ready to start again.

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