During the first half (April-September), the Reserve Bank has projected the retail inflation forecast at 3.0-3.10 per cent in the current fiscal year. Earlier in the April review, the Reserve Bank had projected retail inflation 2.90-3.0 per cent for the period.

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The retail inflation was predicted to be reduced from 3.50-3.80% to 3.40-3.70% during the second half, i.e., October 19 to March 20. In the second bi-monthly monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank said, "the retail inflation trend during the financial year 2019-20 will be influenced by many factors. First, the vegetable price arrived before the summer boom, although it would be seen to be in the winter season.

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In the recent past, the Reserve Bank said that prices of many food items had risen. This could further increase food inflation in the coming period. "For these reasons, considering the impact of the recent cut in the policy rate and the general monsoon forecast in 2019, the retail inflation projection has been revised up to 3.0-3.10 percent for the first half of 2019-20 and 3.40-3.70 percent for the second half," the RBI review said.

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At the same time, the risk is projected to remain balanced at a broader level. The reversable bank on inflation is based on uncertainty over monsoon, unseasonal spurt in vegetable sentiment, international crude oil prices and its impact on domestic prices, geo-political tensions, financial market turmoil and fiscal scenario. In addition, the Reserve Bank has also recently lowered the repo rate.