The war between Russia and Ukraine has reached its peak. The situation created by the war has started affecting the global economy. The Indian economy also cannot survive this danger for a long time. If there is a situation of war between the two countries, then the common people in India may also have to face difficulties in meeting their daily needs. Due to this, not only the prices of diesel-petrol can increase, but there is a possibility of inflation being hit on everything from cooking gas (LPG) to food.
Like other countries, India's economy is also trying to come out from the effects of corona infection. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have created problems in the way of the economy getting back on track. Due to this tension, Brent crude has reached $ 96.7 per barrel. This is the highest level of crude oil since September 2014. Analysts are expressing apprehension that crude oil may even cross the $100 mark per barrel. In India's WPI Basket, more than 9 percent of the products are related to crude oil. The rise in the price of crude oil has a direct effect of about 0.9 percent on wholesale inflation in India.
The same increase in crude oil prices has a spillover effect on the global GDP. According to the analysis, if the price of crude oil reaches $ 150 per barrel, then global GDP growth will be only 0.9 percent. According to experts, if there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, then the price of natural gas in India can increase up to 10 times. Reliance Industries (RIL) says that the price of gas being extracted from the deep sea can increase from $ 6.13 to $ 10. When this happens, the rates of CNG, PNG and electricity will increase manifold immediately. If domestic natural gas rises by $1, then CNG prices will increase by Rs 4.5 per kg. Along with this, the burden of LPG and kerosene subsidy on the government will also increase.
Diesel-Petrol can set a new record:-
Before the recent reduction in excise duty and VAT, diesel and petrol were selling at record levels in India. If the current tension persists or the situation worsens, then again diesel and petrol can set records in the country. When diesel and petrol are expensive, it directly affects inflation. Rising fuel prices increase the cost of transportation of goods. With the increase in transportation cost, the prices of all things start increasing.
Russia and Ukraine export one-fourth of wheat:-
Russia is the top exporter of wheat in the world, while Ukraine ranks fourth in this regard. If the situation worsens, the global supply of wheat may be in trouble, which may be the reason for the inflation of food items around the world. According to a recent report by the United Nations, food inflation is already at a more than a decade high due to supply disruptions due to the pandemic. Since Russia and Ukraine together supply about 25 percent of wheat, the interruption in this could push inflation higher.
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