Juba: As the third country in the troubled Sahel region to experience a military takeover in as many years, Niger has alarmed Western leaders and neighbouring states due to the potential effects on the struggle against Islamist insurgency.
On July 26, his own presidential guard overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, who is currently confined to his official residence in the nation's capital, Niamey. Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, commander of the elite force, has proclaimed himself the new ruler.
The US and former colonial power France have demanded Bazoum's reinstatement in response to comparable military coups in the neighbouring countries of Burkina Faso and Mali, acknowledging his crucial contribution to the fight against extremism.
In order to effectively combat the threat posed by extremists, the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, have also emphasised the need to restore stability. This suggests that neighbouring states may consider using force to restore Bazoum.
Niger is a crucial ally in the global campaign against Islamist insurgency because of its strategic location in the Sahel region, which is bordered by nations experiencing violent extremism. Niger actively participated in regional counterterrorism initiatives before the coup.
However, the coup and its potential impact on security and governance could jeopardise these crucial alliances and obstruct the advancement of regional security initiatives.
Similar coups in the region, according to Aneliese Bernard, director of the Washington, D.C.-based risk advisory group Strategic Stabilisation Advisors, demonstrate that extremist groups stand to benefit the most from these periods of instability.
Following recent coups, groups like the Islamic State Sahel Province and Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin have been able to increase their influence in Mali and Burkina Faso thanks to the fact that history has demonstrated that they can successfully exploit the governance and security gaps left by states preoccupied with internal political issues.
Two rival radical organisations that operate in the area are JNIM and ISSP. People frequently change allegiances between these groups, further complicating the regional security situation.
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JNIM has sworn allegiance to Al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM, and conducts operations in neighbouring Mali as well as throughout West Africa.
In the meantime, ISSP, which is Daesh's Sahelian affiliate, has carried out attacks throughout the region.
Bernard claims that the ISSP is active in the southwest Tillaberi region of Niger, close to the triple border with Burkina Faso and Mali, where the coup has destabilised the governance and security apparatus.
According to her, "in such circumstances, JNIM and ISSP might seize the chance to exploit the lack of state authority and promote themselves as alternatives to governance and security."
These jihadist groups have successfully infiltrated remote communities by spreading the idea that neglected and marginalised communities in the periphery are left without support from the government.
The Fulani people, a local ethnic minority accused by authorities of harbouring terrorist sympathies, are one such targeted group. Because they are a marginalised minority, extremist organisations have had some success recruiting within their ranks.
The possibility of Western aid being suspended as a result of the coup, according to Virginie Baudais, director of the Sahel and West Africa Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, raises concerns about how the Islamist threat will be handled by Niger's security forces.
According to Baudais, "armed groups have consistently targeted defence and security forces in the region, necessitating a realignment of the international community's priorities and support."
"However, despite the fact that the situation has continued to get worse, people do not feel that international troops are protecting them. Because of this, they back their militaries in the fight against terrorism, though not everyone backs the coup leaders.
The potential for conflict within Niger's military ranks is also highlighted by Alex Nkosi, a Malawian policy expert based in Togo, West Africa.
Because not all soldiers support the military's involvement in politics, Nkosi told Arab News that the coup "could lead to divisions within the military." He also questions whether Niger's military will have the resources to face off against the extremist organisations on its own.
Niger's security forces may struggle to maintain their operational capabilities if military aid and assistance from the US and France are suspended as a result of the coup, warned Nkosi.
"As a result, the loss of resources, intelligence-sharing platforms, and training initiatives may make it more difficult for them to effectively combat well-equipped and organised Islamist groups. To address the security challenges on its own, Niger might need to look for alternative sources of support or rethink its strategies.
Among these alternatives could be the Wagner Group from Russia, a private military contractor now based in Belarus following an unsuccessful uprising against the Russian military hierarchy in June of this year.
