When the government was implementing the demonetization move and people were bearing its troubles by silently standing in the ques, most of the opposition leaders were trying their best, to raise a big protest and convert it into a movement against the NDA government. In this attempt, the much talked opponent of Narendra Modi i.e. Arvind Kejariwal, first of all made the serious allegation that, ?it is the biggest scam of our history? and afterwards few others, including Rahul Gandhi re-iterated this allegation to draw public attention. However, even after big endeavor, the public did not buy their ideas & logic behind the allegations. Although, the public support gained by Narendra Modi can?t be the basis of out-right rejection of all the allegations made by Kejariwal and followed by other opposing leaders. In my view, putting aside some illogical and unrealistic sentences in his video talks and pamphlets, all these allegations must be examined seriously and if found worth investigating, a thorough investigation should be done to clarify that, ?is there any substance in the allegation or not??

There are three theories behind the allegations of scam or corruption involved in the massive step of demonetization. Let?s take them, one by one:

I. The theory of ?Saving The Big Defaulters?: 

According to this theory, the demonetization move was to benefit the rich, who are not paying large amount of loans taken from banks, especially Public Sector Banks (PSBs). Because of this, huge bad debts have caused a heavy burden of NPAs over the banks. These big defaulters wish to get ?waiving off? these loans. So, as per this theory, the huge demonetization exercise was staged all over the nation, just to enhance the deposits of the banks, to enable them for waiving off the big debts of the billionaires.

Examination of the theory:

This theory is substantiated mainly with the data that, many PSU banks have waived off the loans of 63 of such big defaulters (including that of Vijay Mallya). As per the pamphlet of AK, "These billionaires have usurped Rs 8 lakh crore until now, of which the government has waived off Rs 1.14 lakh crore?. Later he added, ?Five days after the demonetization, the government has already waived off Rs. 6000 crores of 63 billionaires." Here, the context of these two differing data is not clear, however, it seems that in the amount of Rs. 1.14 lakh crores, he is quoting the summed up figures of at least around a year, prior to demonetization.  

Counter Arguments:

Practical probability of this theory: Now, let?s leave aside the accuracy and authenticity of these figures and accept them as most probably ?true data? and imagine that if the theory is also true, ?how this might have been done??. For this let?s evaluate the practical probability of these happenings: 1) At first, all or some of those rich people (who compete with each other fiercely) gathered/ consulted each other (around an year ago) and conspire to provoke the Prime Minister for demonetization. 2) Then, some (may be one) of their representative or agent met with the PM, suggested and enticed him to do it for some highly lucrative offer. 3) Then the PM decided for it (around 10 months ago) and began all laborious preparations for it? 4) Then he took the very high risk without consulting enough with experts and made the historic declaration. ?..and this whole endeavour was done, just to benefit these few big billionaires? ?Wow !!!

Even though, the critics may (theoretically) argue that, this whole course of actions can?t be termed as ?totally impossible? and this was actually happened with some other way or some short cut. Then, the question arises that, how big alluring offer may have been given to Narendra Modi for doing all these endeavour; that could entice him so much, even after having attained the top post, high popularity and huge opportunity. Even if we assume that, he is a very greedy and selfish person then, can such a highly greedy person choose to risk all his existing attainments & future opportunities for ?any huge junk of wealth??        

Availability of alternatives: Looking at this nearly non-acceptable course of highly inconvenient actions, the obvious question arises, ?was there no other easier better and less risky alternative for fulfilling this (allegedly ?ill?) intention of the PM i.e. the ill-objective of waiving of the debts of the billionaires? And the simple and obvious answer from all knowledgeable persons would be a clear ?YES?. There can be several alternative options through which PM could have fulfilled this wish of billionaires; certainly with less political and personal risk, with less cumbersome endeavour and with less blame to cause hardship to the public and earning their grand curses.
In my view, issue of many of these outstanding loans can be solved by good planning and actions at the level of lender banks themselves. They can either recollect (a big part of) loans by giving some ease or concessions to the borrower or by more strict policy follow-up actions; otherwise (if dead-lock persists) they can move towards some feasible settlements; the policy must differ from case to case. Some of the complicated cases may need intervention of RBI, courts or government.

Difference between waiving-off & writing-off loans and authority of this action: The opposition with AK and other critics are loosely using the terms waiving-off (means finally abandonment of the loans) instead of ?write-off? (means canceling the loan amount from the bank?s balance-sheets, to improve their image appearing through the balance-sheet and to reduce their overall tax liability) which doesn?t mean that that loan amount is finally relinquished by the bank. It makes a lot of difference, the step of waiving off big amounts of loans is not at all easy; it require a long procedure and sufficient justification. As far as I know, even if the government wants & decides to waive-off the huge amount of loans of selected billionaires, then it has to make sufficient provisions in its budget for compensating the banks, and need to get its approval in the parliament. Thus, the government can?t do it directly; while the banks themselves can do it directly, if they have come to the final conclusion that the loan is now non-recoverable and if they can afford the loss caused by this waiving-off. ?.and most importantly, the banks are not bound to follow the government?s orders, without getting sufficient compensation and they have right to appeal in the courts against this action of government.

Can the ?blamed clever people? do a scam, which can?t be kept secret? Now, the main course of demonetization is over and opposition?s charge of ?scam? is on the fore-front of discussion. Is it possible now that, Narendra Modi with all his powers can waive off the huge amounts of hundreds of billionaires, without sufficiently justifiable reasons, for all the cases. If he will pressurize the banks to do it and get it wrongly done, then it is impossible to keep it secret. Now, the opposition, media and public all are vigilant and all will see the cases of waiving loans minutely, even if the particular case would be a reasonable and valid settlement.
This theory given by Kejariwal and his imitate-rs is suggesting such a plan of scam, that can never be kept secret. Anyone even having a below average intelligence can anticipate from very beginning, that this course of actions can?t be kept secret, till the end. Even if none have suspected this ?so-called conspiracy? this is sure to come-up in public and to be questioned, at last, when the final action of waiving off the loans need to be taken in huge amounts and for many. So, who can believe that Narendra Modi, his close advisers and so many billionaire business houses, all are so much foolish that they decided to do such a scam, which can?t be kept secret?            

However, there are few questions valid for investigation: 

Thus, the counter arguments prove that the reason-ability of ?this theory of scam? is zero; but there is some weight in few questions raised by Arvind Kejariwal. The accuracy and authenticity of the data given by him are also doubtful but, even if they are half-true, they indicate the need of thorough investigation to clarify, if there was any wrong in the total course of events occur in this connection.

These questions are:

1. Why the bank loans of 63 billionaire companies/ individuals were written-off by the PSBs, in the period close to demonetization ? However, this question doesn?t indicate surety of any scam/ corruption; there may be many sorts of reasons, which may not have any involvement of the central government or the PM himself.

2. Why the loan amount of Rs. 1200 Crores of Vijay Mallya was written off, while he had flown abroad and at the same time, the action of confiscation of his enough valuable properties were going on? Here again, there may not be any involvement of government and very rare possibility of involvement at the PM level.

3. Huge amount of NPAs of the PSBs was a big problem, even before demonetization, and now, it has become a national issue not only for economic but also for political point of view. So, for having full clarification on the issue raised, it should be investigated that, ?what were and what are? the approach and views of different institutions and persons connected with this issue? This question refers to the views and role of the managers & directors of the lending banks, their higher authorities, RBI governor, finance minister and his officials. The desired investigation must also include the present policy and approach of finance ministry, Nithi Aayog and PM Modi regarding the NPA?s and the big defaulters.      

Now, there are some other theories of blaming it a ?Scam?, we will examine them in the next article.

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