If the vaccination drive against coronavirus is not ramped up and Covid-19 appropriate behaviour is not maintained, there is a possibility of a third wave of the pandemic in 6-8 months, said M Vidyasagar, a scientist involved in the Sutra Model which uses mathematics to project the trajectory of Covid-19. The Indian Institutes of Technology-Hyderabad professor cited a paper by Italian researchers on infected people with decreasing antibodies, which give some sort of immunity, in six months.
"If the antibodies are lost, then there is a chance of immunity going down. In this case, vaccination has to be ramped up and Covid19 appropriate behavior must be practiced. If not then there is a possibility of a third wave in 6-8 months," Vidyasagar said.
According to a study by the San Raffaele hospital in Milan, antibodies against coronavirus remained in the blood of patients with Covid-19 for at least eight months after they were infected. A recent serosurvey by the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB) suggested that the neutralizing antibodies declined significantly after five-six months, making people prone to reinfections. The coronavirus cases in the country peaked in September 2020 and there was a nationwide decline of new cases starting in October.