Fiji: As a result of Fiji's fourth coup in 2006, Australia was imposing sanctions against the nation when the Australian Labor Party last came to power (in 2007). Relations deteriorated before they could improve, and in 2009, Fiji was expelled from the Pacific Islands Forum, partly at the insistence of Australia.
Imagine the year 2022. Fiji's 2006 coup leader is now the country's prime minister; It is also hosting the Pacific Islands Forum; And Australia's new foreign minister, Penny Wong, made her first visit to the Pacific there.
Sitwini Rabuka, the mastermind of Fiji's first coup in 1987, will be Frank Bainimarama's main rival when the country holds elections later this year.
For what reason did this happen?
George Spite, the leader of the third coup in Fiji, is the only coup leader to have actually suffered as a result of his actions. Significantly, only one arm of the army supported the Spite, which was not a soldier. Even after being sentenced to life imprisonment in 2000, he is still imprisoned. Bainimarama and Rabuka, on the other hand, both held high military positions. And after his coup, he was clever and strong enough to see that Fiji's constitution was changed to free it from all legal wrongdoing.
The first coup leader to win the position of prime minister was Rabuka, who returned five years after his coup and won the 1992 election. He was the Prime Minister from 1993 to 1999. After seizing power, Bainimarama gave himself eight years of unopposed rule before holding an election, giving himself enough time to win.
The coup in Fiji has been detrimental to the country's economy and democratic status. Freedom House currently rates it as "partly free". "The repressive environment that followed the coup in 2006 has eased since democratic elections were held in 2014 and 2018," the thinktank said. The judiciary is overshadowed by politics, military and police brutality is a serious issue, and the ruling party often interferes in opposition activities.
It has so far been difficult, if not impossible, to remove Bainimarama from power, when both of these factors are combined with any real support he manages to garner. As a result those who want him to leave believe that the only way to do this is to support another stronger person. Compared to some other Bainimarama alternatives, Rabuka is considered more moderate. Additionally, it is now believed that only Rabuka can defeat Bainimaram.
Is it a step towards democracy or the roots of the coup culture? This preponderance of political leaders from the coup can be accepted as a necessary transition, if it were to happen, at a price to be paid for bringing Fiji back to liberal democratic means. Wish it was so.
It is undoubtedly true that the coup has led to a significant exodus of Fiji Indians, whose share of the population has declined from 50% in the late 1980s to just around 34% today. All the coups so far have been fueled by ethnic tensions, which have subsided but by no means disappeared.
But to assume that coups are a thing of the past would be a grave mistake. Rabuka, who is 74, and Bainimarama, who is 68 and who recently had major heart surgery, are both aging. It is quite possible that the political climate in Fiji will deteriorate after his retirement or death, and the military will eventually feel compelled to step in. Since Bainimarama gave it the constitutional right to do so, it is now responsible for ensuring Fiji's "well-being" in addition to its own safety and defense. The military refers to itself as the "guardian" of its nation.
Fiji is still stuck in the middle, at most, as a quasi-democracy. Several MPs were recently detained for objecting to the government legislation. "Cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment [and] severe restrictions on free expression and media, including censorship by government agents; material interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly; and trafficking of persons" are reported in a recent US government report on Fiji. was noted.
The authoritarianism prevalent in Fiji is very personal. Married women who change their names to vote will also have to change their birth certificates. This new law, which was passed last year and could result in the disenfranchisement of 100,000 women, is being challenged by a group of women. The amendment is the result of a court case involving an opposition MP allegedly harassing the government. The MP was not disqualified by the courts on the basis of the fact that he had registered to vote under a name other than the one listed in his birth certificate. (The MP in question was later jailed on additional charges.)
The South Pacific University vice-chancellor was also expelled by the government early last year and denied re-admission because he exposed the former vice-chancellor, who is a government aide.
This year, the government accused well-known opposition-affiliated attorney Richard Naidu of contempt of court for a social media post he made in response to a spelling error in a court decision.
The post sought to "ridicule the presiding judicial officer and the Fijian judiciary as a whole," the attorney general claimed. Amnesty International has called attention to the "climate of fear" that this charge contributes to, while Naidu is defending the case.
The resurgence of authoritarian leaders following democratic transitions is a global phenomenon, as James Loxton recently demonstrated.
Fiji's situation appears to be widely acknowledged. Many coup opponents left the country, and some of them passed away. Several people connected to the coup and/or the governments that followed are currently in positions of leadership in regional and international organisations.
Partners abroad have also modified their strategy. When the Australian Coalition came to power in 2013, it promised and implemented a new, more positive strategy for Fiji on the grounds that the adversarial strategy of earlier years was pushing Fiji into China's arms.
Since then, as worries about China have grown, those about democracy and human rights have taken a back seat. Even now, Australia is helping Fiji's army by constructing a base to house its export of peacekeeping troops.
In the most recent elections, in 2018, Rabuka first faced off against Bainimarama and lost. Public opinion polls suggest that his chances are better this time around, but making predictions is challenging due to the fragmented opposition.
If Bainimarama loses in November, it will be the first time since 1999 that Fiji has elected a new prime minister. That would be a win for democracy all by itself. However, the reality is that, regardless of how this year's election turns out, the country's next prime minister will most likely be someone who first came to power by using a gun. This demonstrates how ingrained in Fiji's politics the military has grown to be.
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