USA: Researchers estimate that there is a 66% chance between 2023 and 2027 that we will go over the crucial 1.5-degree Celsius global warming threshold for the first time in human history.

The likelihood of exceeding this threshold limit is further increased by rising carbon emissions brought on by human activity as well as the impending El Nino weather event.

For many years, scientists held the view that the world would be in danger if global warming rates approached 2 degrees Celsius. But in 2018, that threshold was raised to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

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With countries agreeing to "pursue efforts" to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius under the 2015 Paris Agreement, this threshold limit has been at the centre of several climate change negotiations.

The likelihood that the world will exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold in any year has been predicted by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a component of the United Nations (UN), starting in 2020. At the time, the WMO predicted there was a 20% chance that the threshold would be crossed in the five years that followed. Chance increased dramatically by 2022, reaching 50%, and is currently 66%.

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The world is approaching the threshold due to two main factors.One of them is the rising levels of carbon emissions caused by human activity, which have been rising despite reports of a decline in the pandemic.The next is El Nino, a recurring weather event that is anticipated to occur in the upcoming months. Global climate patterns may be impacted by it.

Higher global temperatures are typically associated with the El Nino weather event. Next year, it's anticipated that the warming of the Pacific Ocean's surface caused by the event will lead to a record-high global temperature. However, as of right now, scientists are unsure of both the event's beginning and its effects.

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According to Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the UK's Met Office, "we really are now within reach of a temporary exceedance of 1.5C for the annual mean temperature, and that's the first time in human history we've been that close."

The effects of global warming would be far too severe if we consistently exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold over the following ten or two decades. Longer heatwaves, more intense storms, and wildfires would all be consequences. Fortunately, according to scientists, there is still time to slow down global warming, but we must do so by significantly reducing carbon emissions.