USA: The global economy will falter in 2023, two years after a strong economic recovery from the pandemic, according to CoBank's report, The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the US Rural Economy in 2023.

The world economy will only grow slowly as a result of a lingering energy crisis in Europe, China's chaotic exit from zero-Covid, and high interest rates everywhere.

However, trade friction will reduce as global supply chains improve. Europe, which is probably already going through a recession, will get enough energy from this winter.

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However, due to weak industrial activity and sluggish consumer spending, higher interest rates will be needed to combat double-digit inflation, resulting in flat or slightly negative GDP growth in 2023.

Although prices have declined from their peak, they are still 35% higher than in Q4 2021 and are expected to remain high through 2023. This increases the likelihood that high inflation and high interest rates will continue, putting pressure on consumers and businesses.

The prospect of a severe winter and the need to restore gas supplies later in 2023 will keep energy prices volatile and have a significant impact on the European economy.

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China will continue to struggle with the effects of Covid, which has affected it little more than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Beijing is starting to back away from its zero-Covid policy, but the shift from strict lockdowns to more open movement will result in global supply chain disruptions and widespread infections.

China is one of the few major economies in the world that does not have hyperinflation, but this is largely due to the country's weak internal economy.

Although COVID policy is unpredictable and there could be waves of infections, China's GDP growth could reach 4% in 2023.

As a result of the recession, 20% of China's youth workers are unemployed. And the demographic burden on China will get worse. In 2023, as China's population begins to decline, India's will overtake it.

Xi's consolidation of authority and his increasingly worrisome rhetoric about Taiwan have raised the prospect of conflict in the region. Even though we think an invasion of Taiwan is unlikely in 2023, its effect on the world economy would be devastating.

Greater Asia will suffer from the fall in global demand for goods. Even though auto sales are rising and Japan is benefiting, lower semiconductor sales will hurt Taiwan's suppliers.

Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries that have benefited from the pandemic-induced binge on buying goods will feel its effects in 2023. But India is on the verge of becoming more important economically.

In the second half of this decade, India is likely to overtake Japan and Germany as the world's third largest economy as a result of investments in manufacturing and offshoring.

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Globally, emerging market economies are better prepared for this downturn than in previous cycles. Most emerging markets should be able to grow moderately next year, despite a stronger dollar making borrowing more expensive, with responsible fiscal policies, active monetary tightening and less severe inflation issues than in advanced economies. Thank you. In 2023, emerging markets will sustain global economic growth, while advanced economies will stagnate overall and possibly even contract.