Ankara: Discussions about the effectiveness of these sanctions and whether Ankara, with elections soon, should take any action to defend its burgeoning trade relations with Moscow have been sparked by the US's recent announcement to impose export controls on several Turkish companies for allegedly doing business with Russia.

Washington has never before penalised Turkish businesses for allegedly assisting Russia in dodging sanctions. A Russian company called MMK, which owned two steel facilities in Turkey, was sanctioned by the US last year.

The US Commerce Department announced on Wednesday that it has imposed new export controls on 28 companies with headquarters in China, Turkey, and other nations for providing US-origin goods to Russia's military and defence industries, which it considered to be a violation of American sanctions.

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Azu International, a Turkish electronics company founded in March 2022, just after the invasion of Ukraine, and purportedly shipping foreign-origin electronics technology to Russia, including computer chips, is one of the companies that have been sanctioned.

Dexias Turkiye, a Turkiye-based company run by Alim Khazishmelovich Firov, is also on the list. It is accused of acting as a middleman for Radioavtomatika, a Russian defence procurement company, in order to acquire electronic components with a US origin.

More than 400 organisations have been added to the list since February 2022 with the goal of limiting "Russia's ability to sustain, repair and resupply its weaponry," according to a statement from the US Commerce Department in February.

According to Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson, "the United States and our allies and partners will continue to disrupt evasion schemes that support Putin on the battlefield as the Kremlin seeks ways around the expansive multilateral sanctions and export controls imposed on Russia for its war against Ukraine."

"Today's action highlights our commitment to carrying out the G7 commitment to impose significant costs on third-country actors who support Russia's war," the statement reads.

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Additionally, this action is in line with James O'Brien's most recent warning that Turkiye has promised to forbid the re-export of Western goods that have been subject to sanctions in order to support Russia's war efforts. O'Brien is the director of the US State Department's Office of Sanctions Coordination.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Programme, believes that this is just the beginning and that the US may take further, more severe measures against Turkish companies.
 He told Arab News that "in the coming time, US sanctions will target even harder several companies doing business with Russia."

"This is the Biden administration's strategy ahead of the US elections, which aims to deliver a win in terms of foreign policy and necessitates the effectiveness of these sanctions," he said.
 The US government has so far relied on companies to handle compliance. Perhaps this most recent action is doubling down on these efforts," Cagaptay continued.

The Turkish government recently gave a list of foreign products that cannot be sent to Russia to Turkish companies in the ferrous and non-ferrous metals industry in accordance with this warning. In order to comply with Western sanctions, Ankara has additionally verbally assured the European Commission that as of March 1 no goods subject to sanctions will transit to Russia.

However, experts have issued warnings about the detrimental effect on NATO member Turkey and its consequences for the larger international community. Cagaptay claims that the US government is also acting cautiously and does not want to meddle with Turkiye's political and economic stability at this crucial juncture.

"However, this is just the beginning. The volume of trade between Turkey and Russia will undoubtedly decrease after the elections if the US places stricter restrictions on Turkish businesses' ability to do business with Russia, he predicted.

Russia continues to be one of Turkiye's main trading partners. Trade increased last year as a result of the country's dire need for foreign exchange earnings due to the currency crisis.

Despite Western sanctions, trade between Turkiye and Russia has increased since the invasion of Ukraine. To get around the sanctions, hundreds of Russian businesses have opened branches in Turkiye, a haven for Russian investors.

Last year, the amount of trade between the two nations increased to $68.2 billion, and in March, Turkiye's exports to Russia rose by 285 percent to $1.1 billion.

The recent announcement of US sanctions against these Turkish companies, according to Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul think tank EDAM, is a sign that Washington's sanctions regime may have repercussions for a NATO ally like Turkey.

"However, we basically need to contextualise this measure. This measure will not affect any Turkish exports to Russia.

In relation to a number of crucial technological products, the sanctioned entities have been found to be in violation of US sanctions. Given that these products are thought to be aiding the Russian war effort, this is in fact the area of concern for US policymakers, he said.

Ulgen continued that this action also shows that there is legitimate concern regarding the re-export of some essential technological products.

"This is where pressure is likely to be sustained, also on Turkiye, but for this specific range of products," he said.
 Ulgen claims that the Turkish and US governments have so far reached an understanding regarding the application of sanctions.

He said, "Turkeyye has been very careful not to cross some critical red lines set by the sanctions regime.

For instance, he said, "Turiye eventually withdrew from the Russian Mir payment system when there were clear complaints about it where the Turkish banking system accepted transactions based on Russian credit cards."
 The US and Turkish governments are working well together on the sanctions, and this will continue, Ulgen said.

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According to Ulgen, "I believe that neither side would want to find themselves in a more combative environment that would harm both political relations and also Turkiye's economic interests."