The recent capture of Aleppo by rebel forces has revived Syria’s civil war, raising critical questions about the future of the conflict. After almost eight years of relative stability, Aleppo, once a key battleground, has again fallen into rebel hands, posing a significant challenge to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The Attack on Aleppo
On Wednesday, rebels from the jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive, quickly seizing control of a military base and 15 villages in northwestern Aleppo. This move disrupted a vital supply route by cutting off the Damascus-Aleppo highway. In retaliation, Russian airstrikes targeted the rebel-held areas. By Sunday, HTS fighters had taken full control of Aleppo, prompting Syrian forces to send reinforcements to Hama province, where fierce battles continue.
Who Are Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?
HTS, which controls Idlib province, is a dominant rebel group in Syria. Originally linked to al-Qaida under the name Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS rebranded in 2016 after severing ties with the terror group. With around 30,000 fighters, it is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. Although it does not seek global expansion, its rule in Idlib has been marked by serious human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings.
The Historical Context of the Civil War
Syria's civil war began in 2011 following the violent suppression of pro-democracy protests. What started as a call for political reform escalated into a multifaceted conflict, drawing in extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaida affiliates. After significant foreign intervention, Assad, with support from Russia and Iran, regained control of most of the country. A fragile ceasefire, brokered in 2020, had kept the peace in Idlib until now.
The Reasons Behind the Renewed Conflict
HTS’s latest offensive appears well-planned, with the group having strengthened its military capabilities in recent months. Analysts suggest that HTS has become a more organized and professional force, establishing a military college and consolidating governance in Idlib. Additionally, geopolitical shifts have played a role. Hezbollah, a key Assad ally, is weakened by Israeli operations in Lebanon, while Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has diverted attention from Syria.
The timing of the attack, during a truce in Lebanon, may have been strategic, as it took advantage of Hezbollah’s reduced focus on Syria. The weakening of Hezbollah and Russia’s distractions make it harder for Assad to defend his regime.
Can the Rebels Hold Aleppo?
While the rebel victory in Aleppo marks a significant shift, it remains uncertain whether they can consolidate their gains. The situation in Syria is fluid, with ongoing battles in Hama and other regions. The outcome will largely depend on the response of Assad’s allies, including Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran.
Russia’s Role in Defending Assad
Although Russia is heavily involved in the war in Ukraine, it still maintains military assets in Syria. Russian forces could use airstrikes to support Assad, similar to their actions in 2016. However, air power alone may not be enough to defeat the rebels, especially given Hezbollah’s diminished capacity and Syria's weakened military forces.
The Impact on Regional Actors
Several countries have a vested interest in the Syrian conflict:
Iran has deepened its involvement in Syria, supporting Assad’s regime and Hezbollah. The recent rebel offensive jeopardizes its strategic position in the region. Turkey has shifted its approach, now reassessing its relationship with Assad. If the regime falls, Turkey may seek influence in a post-Assad Syria, potentially supporting Islamist factions. Israel views Assad’s potential downfall with mixed feelings. While weakening Iran’s presence would benefit Israeli security, a new government in Syria could pose fresh challenges, especially if Islamist groups take power. The United States has about 900 troops in Syria, tasked with countering ISIS. The rebel takeover in Aleppo might increase the urgency of the U.S. mission, although U.S. withdrawal is still a possibility under President Trump’s "America First" policy.The battle for Aleppo is a critical turning point in Syria’s ongoing civil war. With shifting alliances, weakened Assad supporters, and rising rebel power, the future of Syria remains uncertain. The situation in Aleppo, along with the involvement of regional powers, will likely shape the next phase of the conflict.
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