USA: According to the most recent Global Trade Update from UNCTAD, which was released on June 21st, trade growth was favourable during the first quarter of 2023 for both goods and services. Following the slump in the second half of 2022, both the volume and value of global merchandise trade increased.
Compared to the final quarter of 2022, the first three months of 2023 saw an increase in goods trade of 1.9%, or about $100 billion. Additionally, the value of global services trade rose by about $50 billion, or 2.8%, over the previous quarter.
The UNCTAD nowcast predicts a slowdown in global trade growth for the second quarter of 2023, citing recently lowered world economic forecasts as well as elements like persistent inflation, financial vulnerabilities, the conflict in Ukraine, and geopolitical tensions.
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"Overall, the outlook for global trade in the second half of 2023 is pessimistic, as negative factors predominate the positive," the report says.
According to the report, "friend-shoring"—a practise whereby bilateral trade flows are reoriented to give priority to nations that share similar political values—has become more prevalent since late 2022.
Key bilateral trade trends during this time have been significantly shaped by the conflict in Ukraine, the decoupling of US-China trade interdependence, and the effects of Brexit.
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The report states that "concurrently, there has been a decline in trade partner diversification, implying that global trade has become more concentrated among major trade relationships."
The report shows how trade dependence between the US and China is continuing to decline. It demonstrates how the United States has diminished somewhat in importance as a market for Chinese exports over the past 1.5 years. The United States' reliance on China as a supplier has decreased even more during this time.
Diverse Trade Performance: Major Economies Show Mixed Results in Global Commerce
In the dynamic landscape of international trade, the past four quarters have revealed varying patterns among the world's major economies.
Noteworthy Trade Boost: Brazil, India, the United States, and the European Union Shine with Remarkable Import and Export Surges.
Quarterly Quandary: Trade Momentum Moderates in Q1 2023 for Major Economies, with Several Experiencing Negative Trends. China and India Stand Out with Striking Export Growth.
Regional Reshuffle: Annual Trade Growth Thrives Across Most Regions, Yet Russian Federation and Central Asian Economies Struggle.
East Asia's Ebb: Region's Trade Growth Lags Considerably Behind Average Performance.
Quarterly Quest: Q1 2023 Witnessed Trade Value Declines in Most Regions, except for Pacific, North America, and Africa, which Displayed Modest Growth.
Africa's Triumph: Intra-regional Trade in Africa Surges by 3%, Outshining Other Regions.
Sector Snapshot: Energy's Roller Coaster Ride Impacts Global Trade, with Price Rises and Q1 2023's 11% Dip.
Rising Stars: Agri-food Products, Apparel, Chemicals, and Road Vehicles Thrive in Trade.
Stumbling Sectors: Office and Communication Equipment, along with Transport, Experience Declines, Persisting into Q1 2023.