BEIJING: President Xi Jinping's visit to Central Asia has a lot riding for Beijing, as Xi is expected to meet Vladimir Putin on his first visit outside China since the Covid-19 pandemic began and Kyiv is building a strong fight against it. fighting the battle. Russian troops registered their biggest victory in months.
Beijing announced on Monday that Xi would leave on Wednesday on a three-day visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, followed by a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan. The Russian President and his hosts in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan had earlier announced their meeting and visit to Central Asia.
According to analysts, Xi's visit was a part of Beijing's efforts to strengthen ties with its neighbors and position itself as a rival to the US on the international stage.
The stakes are also high for the Chinese leader, who has come under intense domestic and international scrutiny over the escalating US-China dispute, the consequences of his zero-Covid strategy and his attempt to win an unprecedented third term in office.
In light of concerns over how long Moscow might continue to support a protracted conflict, Putin feels that his meeting with Xi at the SCO summit is now in light of Ukraine's quick regional gains in its unexpected counterattack in the Kharkiv region. Even more necessary.
"Xi's visit to Central Asia demonstrates his confidence in his control over the domestic situation," said Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington. This reflects the solidarity and support that China and other members of the SCO provide for each other.
It serves as a reminder to the West that China is not alone. More important than economic importance is political.
According to Li Lifan, an expert on Russia and Central Asia at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, it was a well-thought-out move to garner support from China's neighbors in Central Asia to counter geopolitical barriers from the West.
When China's major power diplomacy has come to a standstill, "it is in line with China's adjusted priorities to stabilize its peripheral regions," he said.
He claimed that Xi's choice of Kazakhstan, an important oil exporter and integral to Beijing's famous Belt and Road Initiative, highlighted the importance of the initiative to China.
Beijing is projected to give another push to its "Health Silk Road" initiative to increase its global impact through its response to the pandemic, at a time when the infrastructure project is badly hit by COVID-19 and China's economic slowdown. has been affected.
According to Lee, several agreements were also expected for cooperation in technology, connectivity, and official exchanges, as well as deals in the energy and economic sectors.
It is anticipated that tensions emanating from China's growing economic clout, Beijing's treatment of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang and anti-Chinese sentiment in the Central Asian nation will be quelled by Xi and his Mandarin-speaking Kazakh counterpart Kasim-Jomart Tokayev.
The importance of Xinjiang was demonstrated, in the opinion of Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Russia's Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, by the fact that Kazakhstan, a Muslim Turkic country with which Xinjiang extends more than 1,700 kilometers (1,060 mi). shares a boundary. ), is his first stop.
Beijing may be more interested in gaining reliable underground access to vital natural resources that would be impenetrable to the US Navy, as the Sino-US conflict escalates and a military conflict appears to be a more likely scenario, he suggested. .
According to Vladimir Portyakov, deputy director of the Institute for Far Eastern Affairs at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Xi's visit showed how much Beijing attaches importance to the SCO, especially in light of growing hostility with the West.
The visit to Samarkand will give [Xi] an opportunity to personally meet and interact with Putin, [Indian Prime Minister Narendra] Modi and possibly other world leaders. I think the main goal of Central Asian countries in China is to increase trade and draw in new capital."
China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, India and Pakistan make up the SCO, and Iran is expected to join. As a sign of Beijing's support, 150 Chinese-made Hongqi limousines have reportedly been sent to Samarkand for the SCO summit.
Xi will meet Modi for the first time since a deadly border conflict in June 2020, but his meeting with Putin is widely expected to be more controversial.
Just weeks before Moscow's attack on Ukraine, Xi and the Russian president made a "no limits" partnership declaration during their last face-to-face meeting in Beijing. China has carefully avoided lifting sanctions or giving Russia military supplies, even though it has refused to denounce Putin's six-month war.
Li Zhanshu, the third-ranking official in the Communist Party, was sent by Xi to Putin's Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok rather than travelling there personally.
According to a Fudan University report, Chinese investments in Russia fell by 100% in the first half of this year. According to Portyakov, due to the increasing pressure the West is putting on both countries, there will be an increase in the mutual support between Russia and China, primarily on the political and partially on the economic fronts.
"However, China is extremely wary of Western secondary sanctions because they could make the already challenging economic situation in China even worse. This situation is already well known in Russia," he said.
Professor of government and politics at George Mason University and expert on Russia Mark N. Katz downplayed the prospect of Xi providing the assistance that Russia desperately needs to deal with Western sanctions. "Putin is in dire need of additional support from China. But I don't think Xi will be as helpful as Putin would like," he added.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov acknowledged that his nation was going through a time when it had no one else to rely on but itself, Tass reported late last month. "Lavrov's remarks imply that Beijing is not seen by Moscow as being as supportive as Beijing would like it to be. In Ukraine, Russia is genuinely in trouble. Xi doesn't want to be associated with failure, in my opinion," Katz said.
However, Xi might be pleased that the West is concentrating more on its differences with Russia than with China. Additionally, Russia may be more willing to make concessions to China as the war drags on.
Xi's decision not to travel to Russia, according to Lukin, "may show that Beijing carefully calibrates its level of public support for Moscow," he added. "However, compared to the level of the relationship that existed before February 24, it is not evident that Beijing and Moscow are moving closer together.
Currently, China might be hesitant to increase its ties with Russia in order to antagonise the US even more, the analyst speculated. In any case, he added, "major adjustments in Beijing's policy toward Russia are unlikely" before the leadership transition was completed at the beginning of next year.
However, Sun asserted that in addition to Li Zhanshu's promises of economic cooperation during his visit, China would undoubtedly do more in the future to assist Russia.
"Military assistance may not be in the cards, but China will continue to finance and invest in Russia as it has done since the war began. In November, Xi will meet with [US President Joe] Biden. Although he doesn't want an alliance with Russia, one is unavoidable given the US and China's strategic rivalry, according to Sun.
Director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies Pan Dawei, however, noted Russia's growing worries about China's escalating presence in Central Asia, traditionally Moscow's backyard. Although Russia is wary of China in Central Asia, he said, "it cannot control this." According to Katz, Xi's visit demonstrated Beijing's growing assertion of its interest in Central Asia, forcing Russia to "accept a lesser role there."
Since Russia is likely less able or willing to do so, he added, "the Central Asians are hoping for more investment from China. Observers also cited recent unrest in Kazakhstan and tensions between Moscow and its neighbour in Central Asia, claiming that these developments provided yet another chance for Beijing.
It makes sense that Kazakhstan is concerned that Russia might someday focus on "liberating" the sizable Russian population that is still present in northern Kazakhstan. The painful reality is that America and the West will not be able to or willing to support Kazakhstan to the same extent that they do Ukraine, according to Katz.
Therefore, it can be inferred from Xi's visit to Kazakhstan that Beijing regards Kazakhstan as a friend. Accordingly, Russia shouldn't do anything to jeopardise Beijing's friendship with Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan would require Beijing's endorsement, according to Sun.
"The nation borders China, and there were puzzling inquiries regarding Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan's unrest earlier this year. Kazakhstan is viewed by many Chinese experts as attempting to strike a balance between its independence and Russian hegemony, she added.
Li added that China had become a counterbalance force in Central Asia. At Nur-request, Sultan's he added, "I think it's even possible that China may try to help mediate between Russia and Kazakhstan." It is anticipated that Xi will visit
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