New Delhi: The release of exit poll numbers on Saturday evening has sparked discussions among opposition parties regarding the reliability of the projections. According to various exit polls, the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) is projected to secure between 280 and 401 seats, showcasing a significant variation in predictions.
Variation in Predictions
Dainik Bhaskar predicts the NDA to secure a minimum of 280 seats, while India Today Axis My India forecasts a maximum of 401 seats for the alliance. This substantial variation in seat predictions for the same set of elections has drawn considerable attention.
"The science of exit polls is all about predicting the vote share, and seat prediction is not a part of it. Vote share to seat conversion is a mathematical extrapolation over the data," explained Yashwant Deshmukh of C Voter in an interview with ET. Deshmukh emphasized that given the same vote share data, different methodologies can yield different seat predictions.
"Never trust an exit poll that doesn’t provide a vote share number. That’s the thumb rule," Deshmukh added.
C Voter's Projections
C Voter has projected the NDA to win between 353 and 383 seats, showcasing another set of projections in the exit poll scenario.
Methodology and Corrections
Partha Das, from chanakyya.com, who conducts pre and post-poll surveys, has predicted the return of Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, which differs from several exit poll predictions. He attributed these variations to the sample collection and demographic details like age, gender, and caste.
"In our surveys, we noticed a different voting pattern among women in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. We corrected this by increasing the number of women samples, and our predictions are based on the vote share of both men and women," Das explained. He predicted 17 to 20 seats for the Congress in Karnataka, contrasting with general opinion polls that forecasted less than 10 seats.
Impact of Seat Range
Some exit polls have shown a wide range of seat predictions. For instance, according to Dainik Bhaskar's exit poll, the NDA could secure between 281 and 350 seats, while the INDIA block could get 145 to 201 seats. This significant variation in seat predictions could potentially alter the political landscape, depending on whether the NDA secures 281 or 350 seats.
The wide-ranging predictions in the exit polls have raised debates and discussions about their accuracy and reliability. With just a few days left until the election results are declared, the exit poll results will be closely scrutinized for any insights they may offer into the final outcome.
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