UK: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was asked how long she would be in office, just a month after taking office. After wreaking havoc in financial markets and sending the pound to its lowest level in relation to the US dollar, his government's first significant economic plan, unveiled in late September, was widely ridiculed.
Truss's administration was forced to take an embarrassing U-turn on the part of the package that proposed tax cuts for the rich just days after a "mini-budget" was announced.
Truss problems may be just the beginning, as Britain faces a prolonged crisis and the pound is likely to fall further. His authority already seems to be eroding.
Truss took over as prime minister early last month after a majority of members of the Conservative Party voted for former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak in a leadership contest.
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There is already discontent among Truss lawmakers, which could escalate in the coming weeks as serious opinion polls weigh on their political survival prospects. Most of Truss's parliamentary allies supported his rival Sunak.
According to Tim Bell, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, if we assume for a moment that the market has calmed down, the biggest issue of the truce is the election.
"The Conservative Party is full of MPs who worry about keeping their seats in Westminster on a daily basis, which almost immediately turns into an issue of party management."
The most recent YouGov opinion poll indicates that 63% of Conservative voters and 73% of Britons have a negative opinion of the truss.
According to the survey, 62% of respondents wanted a general election in the coming months, one in which, if previous elections are to be believed, the Conservative Party would be completely destroyed. Recent polls of opinion also revealed a historically large lead for the main opposition Labor Party.
As the nation teeters on the brink of recession, Truss and his chancellor Quasi Quarteng are under pressure to present the full cost of their economic plans.
UK GDP declined 0.2% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels, while it grew by 1.8% in the eurozone and 3.5% in the US.
As he concludes his party's annual convention in Birmingham this week, Truss vowed to guide the UK "through the storm". A frightening conference was described by UK media as some senior MPs did not attend and delegates were openly criticizing the government.
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Despite temporarily pacifying the delegates, Truss's conference speech, in which he argued for economic "growth, development, development" and vowed to oppose the "anti-development coalition" of opposition politicians, was critical of the party's ideological The differences are unlikely to be bridged.
"If they (Truss and Quarteng) insist on completing the rest of their tax-cutting plans, it will mean that spending cuts and welfare benefits don't keep pace with inflation," Bell said. "Unless they are willing to borrow the kind of money that can drive up the cost of government bonds."
“For many Conservative MPs, this will only increase the impression that they do not care about the poor and only care about the rich. As a result, there will be a heated discussion about this within the party, and is already down. above.
Senior conservatives unhappy with the truss's plans to increase welfare benefits in line with worker pay instead of inflation include former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorris and former Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Truss is well aware that it has made a lot of mistakes in the past few weeks. The removal of Boris Johnson by Conservative MPs was not his fault. But it would be a mistake to dismantle his policies as well, Doris told the Times.
We made a deal with the voters and that was our mandate. Installing in a democracy to remove a prime minister and remove policies chosen by the people for less than three years is a problematic precedent.
Traditional conservatives are likely to feel uneasy about Truss's development plans, which include relaxing plan rules to allow construction in so-called "greenbelt" areas, repeal environmental protection laws and restart fracking.
For example, the government has been accused by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds of launching an "attack on nature".
Farmer, who has previously been a staunch supporter of the Conservative Party, is now leaving the party over concerns that post-Brexit agreements with countries such as New Zealand will hurt him.
Former Conservative MP Paul Goodman likened looking to the parliamentary future to looking at a snooker table in an article on the ConservativeHome website. No one can predict how hitting one ball will affect the other balls, where they will ricochet, or how they will settle.
It's being said that unless Truss can quickly seize control of the Conservative Party and persuade the financial markets that her growth plan is feasible, she might leave office before Christmas.
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The unpopularity of the Conservative Party is also likely to rise if, as predicted, rising mortgage rates cause a decline in home prices and an increase in homelessness.
How to remove the fourth prime minister since the Conservatives took office in 2010 will be the Conservative Party's problem. Although there won't be a general election for another two years, another protracted leadership race like the one over the summer would enrage the party and the electorate.
It is challenging to see who could replace Truss as an unopposed, mutually agreeable alternative, according to Bale. "I don't think there is any way the Tories can inflict another full-blown leadership, two-stage contest on the party," Bale said.
The only logical outcome of Truss' resignation would be a general election, which the party currently appears destined to lose. The new crop of Conservative MPs from 2019, especially those in former Labour districts who supported Johnson's high-spend approach and assertions that he "got Brexit done," would be destroyed.
Another option is for the party to alter the procedures for electing a new leader to allow only MPs to cast ballots.