Bangkok: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha is expected to lose the election in Thailand on Sunday, with the opposition, led by exiled billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter, predicted to win the most seats.
According to polls, voters are expected to deliver a damning verdict on almost a decade of military-backed rule, which has resulted in economic stagnation and what rights groups say is a worrisome crackdown on fundamental freedoms.
It has been almost three years since youth-led pro-democracy protests that called for unprecedented reforms to the ultra-wealthy King Maha Vajiralongkorn's powers upended the politics of the kingdom. This election is the first since those protests.
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The Pheu Thai party, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, the youngest child of former prime minister Thaksin, who was overthrown in a coup in 2006, is currently leading the polls.
However, the junta-drafted constitution gives the Senate, which it personally selected, a significant say in selecting the prime minister, potentially impeding Pheu Thai's path to power.
Following a contentious 2019 election, Prayut, a former army chief who overthrew Paetongtarn's aunt Yingluck in a coup in 2014, was appointed prime minister and is now in charge of a complex multi-party coalition.
The 69-year-old has positioned himself as the candidate with the necessary experience for the position, but he is trailing significantly in the polls due to the country's faltering economy and sluggish recovery from the pandemic that severely damaged the kingdom's vital tourism industry.
Office worker Wan Sirichai, 50, asked in Bangkok, "Look at our country — do you think our economy is good after four years?" Instead of using competent individuals to run the nation, they resorted to nepotism to advance the interests of their own close friends. I merely want intelligent individuals to enter and transform the nation.
The Election Commission estimates that 90 percent of eligible voters participated in the early voting on Sunday despite the oppressive heat.
According to analysts, the 52 million-strong electorate had a strong desire for change as evidenced by the high early turnout.
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The conservative royalist-military Bangkok establishment, which is represented by Prayut's United Thai Nation party and the Palang Pracharath Party, which was the leader of the previous government coalition, faces a youthful opposition in the election.
Lese majeste prosecutions have skyrocketed under Prayut's administration, adding to what Human Rights Watch has called a "atmosphere of fear" surrounding the election.
In the wake of the 2020 street protests, which included demands for changes to the previously untouchable monarchy, more than 200 people have been charged with royal defamation.
The second-largest economy in Southeast Asia has received a lot of attention during the campaign due to high household debt levels and sluggish growth.
However, with the majority of parties engaged in a bidding war over populist welfare promises, there isn't much new to offer in terms of policies.
Pheu Thai has promised to give every adult citizen over the age of 16 10,000 baht ($300) in a digital wallet, while other candidates have promised to raise the minimum wage and provide cash grants to farmers.
Since 2001, Pheu Thai and its predecessors have won the majority of seats in every election; however, it has had two prime ministers deposed by coups and two by court orders.
To prevent the military-appointed Senate from obstructing the party's path to the presidency, Paetongtarn has pleaded with voters to support him with a landslide victory.
The radical Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai's closest rival in the polls, is the election's wild card because it has drawn support from young people who are fed up with the established parties and who took to the streets in 2020.
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The Future Forward Party, which shocked the kingdom by placing third in the 2019 election, was destroyed by a court order, and MFP emerged from its ashes.
A Pheu Thai candidate will likely face opposition from the 250 senators chosen by the junta, so the party needs to win 376 of the 500 seats.
Even though Pheu Thai is doing well in the polls, it is unlikely to win by such a landslide, indicating that it will need to form a coalition to win power.
A partnership with the radical MFP could increase the likelihood of further military intervention in a nation that has already seen 12 coups since absolute monarchy was abolished in 1932.
Despite Pheu Thai's claims to the contrary, political analyst Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee of Chulalongkorn University stated that a link-up with one of the departing military-allied parties appears feasible.
For the sake of compromise and stability, she predicted that they would combine with one or more parties on the side of the previous administration.