USA: According to a report by Fitch Solutions, countries around the world are experiencing the worst rice shortage in 20 years. The agency predicts that the global supply will be 8.7 million tonnes short for the crop year 2022–2023, the biggest shortfall since 2003–2004 when it was 18.6 million tonnes.

The world produced 502.9 million tonnes of rice in 2017, according to data from Statista.com, making it the third most produced grain after maize and wheat.

However, the report notes that due to unfavourable weather in nations that produce rice, such as China and Pakistan, production has been declining lately.

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With over 148 million metric tonnes of milled rice supplied to the market in 2021–2022, China is the world's largest producer. However, much of the nation's rice farmland was negatively impacted by heavy rains and flooding in the second half of last year. The country is reportedly "experiencing the highest level of drought in its rice growing regions in over two decades." Both scenarios pose a serious risk to the delicate crop, according to analysts.

Due to severe flooding this year, Pakistan, which accounts for almost 8% of the world's rice trade, saw a 31% decrease in its annual production.

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In addition, predictions indicate that India, the second-largest producer of rice in the world, may experience extreme heat in the second and third quarters of 2023, which could also jeopardise crop yield. The highest level of drought in 20 years has also been affecting Europe's rice-growing nations, including France, Germany, and the UK, which analysts say may further jeopardise this year's supply.

Due to the shortages, analysts predict that rice prices will stay around their recent highs for the rest of the year, ranging from $16 to $18 per cwt (50.8kg), which is more than double that of 2020. Analysts point out that in addition to supply issues, Russia's military action in Ukraine also has an impact on rice prices. The conflict has threatened both Ukrainian and Russian grain exports to the international market, raising wheat prices, which have increased the appeal of rice as a substitute and increased demand.

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Analysts caution that the price of rice "given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets," is expected to drive up global food price inflation.

However, according to Fitch Solutions, a predicted surge in production in India may lead to "an almost balanced position in 2023/24" and "a surplus in 2024/25" on the world rice market.