China: We examine potential personnel changes and the power structure of departments that will have the greatest impact on Beijing's Taiwan policy ahead of this year's Communist Party Congress. The second article in the series by Jack Lau examines possible adjustments for China's top military officials.
After 40 years of largely peaceful conditions, China's military, the largest permanent armed force in the world, may be facing its most pressing situation.

Its top general, Xu Qiliang, cited the "Thucydides trap", the idea that conflict is inevitable when a rising power challenges an established one to support increased defense spending last year.
Since then, tensions have risen in the region, with the People's Liberation Army conducting unprecedented drills around Taiwan this month when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the autonomous island. Concerns about regional stability grew when the PLA cut regular communication channels with the US military in response to the visit. China and India have a long border dispute, and China is also under pressure from the US and its allies in the disputed South China Sea.

However, there may be a change in military leadership soon. The apex decision-making body of the Central Military Commission has four members who have reached the official retirement age of 68 years. If the Communist Party follows tradition, they may resign in the autumn during the Party Congress, which takes place every two years.

President Xi Jinping leads the CMC and is expected to remain in that position. The choices it makes for top officials will be closely watched as they can reveal the direction the PLA is headed and its lofty modernization objectives.

Analysts claim that Xi is better qualified and more experienced this time around, and that he will be looking for both combat experience and political loyalty when making his selection. The last reshuffle happened five years ago.

The CMC consists of seven people, including Xi. When the Congress is held, Vice President Xu and General Zhang Yuxia will be the oldest at 72. The head of the Joint Staff Department, General Li Zuocheng, will be either 68 or 69 years old, depending on the Congressional declaration. Date, while the Defense Minister, General Wei Fenghe, will be 68 years old.
Only Generals Miao Hua and Zhang Shengmin, who oversee the Department of Military Discipline and Political Affairs respectively, would be too young to continue.
The party's Central Committee will confirm the new lineup at its first plenary meeting since Congress.

Since the CMC was established in 2017 as part of broader military reforms mandated by Xi, it has been difficult to predict who will rise to the top ranks of the military establishment, let alone who they are. But if Xi remains the leader of the party, a pre-promotion could signal.

New picks typically come from the pool of PLA generals who are members or alternate members of the Central Committee, and preferably combat veterans who have served as theater command or chief of the service branch. However, given that Xi has already promoted two lieutenant generals to the CMC during his ten-year tenure - Wei in 2012 and Zhang Shengmin in 2017 - lieutenant generals may also be in the running.
Li Nan, visiting senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, stressed that this is unlikely to happen again. He called the military reforms "the last time of significant institutional change".

Lee claimed that Xi laid the foundation stone for the lineup changes made at CMC this year. “For example, Xi Jinping was unprepared five years ago. At the time, he lacked a network within the PLA.
According to Li, this was partly due to the fact that he fired his political work chief, Zhang Yang, and his first joint staff chief, Fang Fenghui, after working with him during his first five-year term. was.

This time around, Xi may also try to promote officials with whom he has worked in the past. Throughout his political career, Xi has developed ties with the top leadership of the PLA. He has cemented ties with the military through his late father, Xi Zhongxun, who served as deputy political commissar for one of the five PLA field armies fighting the Kuomintang forces during the Chinese Civil War.
Several officers who previously served in the 73rd Group Army, which have been reorganized from the 31st Group Army, have been promoted to CMC. Fujian province in the southeast, where Xi spent the first 17 years of his political career (1985–2002), is home to the Field Army.

Miao and Zhang Shengmin are at the forefront of the promotion as they are the only CMC members not yet retired. When Xi was the governor of Fujian and the division's first political commissioner in 1999, Miao, who was considered a pro-Xi, served as the head of its political department.
Miao, Zhang Shengmi. Similar to The political ladder of the PLA climbed. He worked for years in the General Political Department before moving to the Second Artillery Corps, where he served as a Political Commissioner until he was transferred to the CMC in 2015 and was recruited as a member in 2017.

However, according to Lee from NUS, it is unlikely that the two would be appointed vice presidents as it would be against tradition as there would be no members of the ground force in at least one post.
He suggested that General Liu Genli, the head of the ground forces, take over in addition to Miao. Since he served in a special capacity as the head of the Department of Discipline and Inspection, Zhang Shengmin cannot be selected for the position, Li said.
With Liu as vice president, the custom of having a ground forces officer in the position would continue, and since he would be 58, he could serve two five-year terms each before retiring.

He joined the PLA in 1983 and served in the East Beijing Military Region for several years. In July 2015, after serving only six months as the paramilitary People's Armed Police, Liu was promoted to the rank of Chief of Staff of the Ground Forces. He joined the central committee in 2017 and was promoted to general and ground forces commander in 2018.
One of the few senior PLA commanders with frontline experience, Liu was awarded the First Class Merit Award for deterring 36 attacks during the border conflict between China and Vietnam in the 1980s. CMC's current vice president, Zhang Yuxia, is also part of that group.

General Lin Jiangyang and Liu were both mentioned as frontrunners for the position of vice president by Hong Kong-based military analyst Liang Guoliang. While Xi was serving in Fujian, Lin, who now heads the Eastern Theater Command, was a member of the 31st Group Army. Additionally, he served as the CTC Commander.
According to Liang, two of Xi's most trusted young military stars are Liu and Lin. Eastern Theater Command, the primary force facing Taiwan, is under the command of Lin. He mentioned how the exercises following Pelosi's visit tested the combat readiness of Eastern Theater Command. "It would all add to Lin's track record, not to mention that he came from Xi's power base in Fujian.

And NUS's Li believes this could give him an advantage over Liu. The fact that Liu Zhenli is not from the Eastern Theater is her only flaw; Usually, those who... [in promotion] have a better chance because they may be familiar with Xi Jinping.
In addition to being a potential vice president, Li Zuocheng said that Lin was a contender to take his place as head of the Joint Staff department.

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