MINSK: Ukraine and the West have taken notice of a flurry of military activity in Belarus this week as a possible sign that President Alexander Lukashenko may commit his military to supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

According to his defense ministry, Lukashenko has ordered troops to be deployed along the Russian military close to the Ukrainian border and "combat preparedness" exercises are already underway. On Tuesday, the Interior Ministry conducted an exercise to eliminate "sabotage groups" close to Yelask, which is only 20 kilometers (12 mi) from the Ukrainian border.

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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the Group of Seven (G7) nations to deploy an international observer mission close to the border, and France has warned Belarus that further involvement in Ukraine could result in additional western sanctions. can.

Belarus did not directly participate in the fighting, but allowed itself to be used as a staging area for Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

Analysts claim that if Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Lukashenko join the conflict at a time when Moscow is grappling with setbacks and facing unprecedented public criticism of the general's shortcomings, Lukashenko may have little to follow. There will be no choice but to.

However, he doubts that Belarus' intervention will have a significant impact. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, it has only 48,000 members in its armed forces and has not engaged in war in the more than 30 years since independence following the fall of the Soviet Union.

According to Samir Puri, author of Russia's Road to War with Ukraine, the military is not exactly war-proven. However, he said the Belarusian intervention could likely force Ukraine to step up security in the country's north, withdrawing troops from areas bordering Russia with Russia in the south and east.

Puri said, although Zelensky's request for foreign observers may not be diplomatically feasible, it shows that Ukraine takes the risk seriously. Who would supply such force is unknown because Moscow would object to any UN involvement and because NATO or EU observers could engage in war with Russian forces.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to inquiries for comment. It claimed on Tuesday that the deployment of Russian troops was a defensive move "meant to adequately respond to actions near our borders."

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Three NATO members border Belarus, which could also be a consideration in Putin's plans to lure his ally into the conflict.
"It brings him very close to the borders of NATO. I'm bringing the war to you, Putin can declare then. Are you sure you want it? What happens if the missile is launched incorrectly? ? asked a top European official.

Although he said at the time that he expected thousands of troops to arrive on Belarusian soil, Lukashenko did not give details about the composition and function of the combined force announced on Monday.

Not all evidence points to the Belarusian army about to enter the conflict. According to the Belarusian Hajun Project, which tracks military movements, the equipment is evidence of a move to the other side. This included the transfer to Russia of at least two trains carrying 28 Belarusian tanks.

There are no indications that Russia is sending troops to the region to retake Ukraine from the north, as was the case at the outbreak of the conflict in February, according to Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarus diplomat who currently with the European Foreign Council. relations.

He claimed that although he did not think Lukashenko was going to send his troops to war with Russia, he was preparing for that possibility.

Although he hasn't made up his mind yet, he knows it's better to keep the army ready if this happens. Lukashenko, who is politically and financially dependent on Putin and survived mass protests with Russian aid in 2020, would not be able to refuse military support if the Kremlin requested it, according to Slunkin.

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"Putin is their guarantee of maintaining his power," he said. "Lukashenko needs both Russian aid and repression to survive. The level of his dependence is so great that he has hardly any room for maneuver.